Last week, I wrote that even if Donald Trump loses, the likely silver lining would be that Republicans are highly favored to win control of the Senate, which would not only be a significant obstacle to Kamala Harris's legislative agenda but also limit her ability to fill judicial vacancies.
Of course, right now, it looks like Trump has the momentum, as the polls are shifting toward him. There are plenty of reasons to feel confident about his chances of victory — though I advise you not to take anything for granted. That said, as Trump’s surge continues, it’s not just Kamala’s prospects that seem to be fading fast, but also Democrats seeking reelection to the Senate.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester has shifted from a comfortable lead to trailing Republican Tim Sheehy. It appears to be a likely pickup now. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is losing ground as well.
Other Democrats are also facing increased vulnerability; the Cook Political Report has changed the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to a “toss-up,” boosting Republican Eric Hovde against incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Hovde’s campaign is gaining traction as he criticizes Baldwin for aligning with the Biden-Harris agenda.
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Additionally, although Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) was previously expected to win reelection, there’s new hope that Trump’s lead in the state can help Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.
The previous two polls out of Ohio that RealClearPolitics tracked have Brown up just one and two points — well within the margin of error. Considering Trump has an RCP average lead in Ohio of 7.4 points, it's certainly plausible that Trump's advantage there could help bring Moreno over the finish line.
But the good news is that Moreno may not have to rely on Trump to win.
A new poll from Morning Consult now shows Moreno ahead for the first time in this election.
We can easily write this off as "just one poll," but when you consider that the previous poll from this pollster had Brown up two points, especially in the overall context of the polls in this race tightening to within a couple of points, it's a good sign that Moreno, like Trump, has the momentum in the final weeks, and Brown will soon begin a new career as an overpaid lobbyist.
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We cannot overstate the significance of this shift. Democrats were generally expected to regain control of the House even before Biden dropped out of the race. A big part of the reason why Democrats wanted Joe Biden to drop out of the race was not just because he was expected to lose, but because he was a drag on down-ballot Democrats. The shift we've seen in the polls over the past few weeks clearly hasn't just benefitted Trump but also Republicans running for the Senate.
I’m more convinced than ever that Democrats rallying behind Kamala after Biden dropped was less about securing the presidency and more about generating party enthusiasm to prevent a down-ballot disaster. For a while, it looked like this was happening. However, I'm starting to think that Kamala, like Biden before her, is going to hurt Democrats down the ballot.
With any luck, Republicans can hold onto the House, too.
