The moment Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election and endorsed Kamala Harris, it was inevitable that she would see a bounce in the polls. Democrats had long been suffering a deficit of enthusiasm because they knew that Joe Biden couldn't hack it. Her undemocratic ascension to the the top of the ticket gave them hope, and hope goes a long way, but it wasn't enough.
It's easy to feel discouraged seeing Harris currently leading in the RealClearPolitics average, but her lead is tiny—just 0.5 points. That's not enough to translate into an Electoral College victory, and when you consider the fact that this is a reflection of her honeymoon period, that's a real warning sign for the Harris-Walz campaign.
Perhaps that's why Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) chose to remove himself from consideration in the Kamala veepstakes in order to run for the U.S. Senate in 2026, and why Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) also reportedly backed out at the last second.
But, I digress.
Polls have tightened, there's no doubt, but honeymoons don't last forever.
According to Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage, the co-hosts of the PollingPlus podcast, Trump is still leading in key battleground states.
In Wisconsin, he narrowly leads Harris with 49 percent to her 48 percent. In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a slight edge at 46 percent to Harris' 44 percent. Arizona is a close race as well, with Trump at 48 percent and Harris at 47 percent. Trump also leads in Nevada by three points, 48 to 45 percent, and has the biggest advantage in North Carolina, where he captures 49 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 45 percent.
Michigan is the only battleground state where Harris outperforms Trump, leading 49 to 47 percent. As I've said before, these states, particularly the "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, will likely determine the outcome of the election. Assuming Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, he only needs to win one of the "blue wall" states to win the election. Kamala Harris would have to win all three.
Related: Kamala’s Poll Bounce May Be a Good Thing for Trump
I don't mean to give you a false sense of confidence. Trump needs to run a disciplined campaign that stays on message if he wants to win.
"If [the election] is based on issues, the election will swing to Trump. If it is based on candidate attributes, it will swing towards Harris. And we have no way of knowing where the campaign is going to go because we don't know what Trump's going to say over the next 90-something days," pollster Frank Luntz said last week.
That we're in the middle the Kamala Harris honeymoon bounce and she's not managed to get a solid lead in the polling averages is telling, even if somewhat predictable. After all, she was the most unpopular vice president in the history of polling before she was anointed as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. Democrats may be rallying behind her, but they just see her as the candidate they got to go against Trump. She's a means to an end. She doesn't have the personal appeal that Barack Obama had. The enthusiasm we see for her is superficial, at best.
Hopefully, Trump can stay on message and not be his own worst enemy.
