It was inevitable that after Joe Biden dropped out Democrats would experience a surge of enthusiasm. The polls naturally tightened, and Kamala Harris even took the lead in the RealClearPolitics average. A small lead, for sure, but it nevertheless shows that her rapid (albeit undemocratic) ascension as her party's nominee has swung things in her direction, even if only temporarily. Perhaps this is exactly what Trump needs going forward.
Make no mistake about it, the reason Democrats blackmailed Joe Biden into dropping out was that he was on track to lose the election in epic fashion. Even reliably blue states were starting to become competitive. Trump's talk about a landslide victory, while arguably justifiable, was sure to lull many Trump supporters into a false sense of complacency. Perhaps even Trump was taking the election for granted.
I don't think he can anymore.
Pollster Frank Luntz even predicted that Kamala Harris would be the likely winner if the election were held today.
"Make no mistake, Trump's advantage with the Republican Convention after that ended is gone. It is wiped away. And if the election were held today, I actually believe that Harris would beat Trump. That's how much things have changed over the last two weeks," Luntz said during a Zoom event with No Labels.
He also said that the election is very much up for grabs, but also revealed what Trump has to do to win.
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"If this campaign is about inflation and immigration, Donald Trump wins. If it's about the attributes of the candidates, Kamala Harris wins," Luntz explained.
Luntz notes that while Trump is unpopular on a personal level, many voters are satisfied with how he governed. Conversely, the Biden administration's unpopularity could harm Harris, despite the recent surge in excitement around her.
"If [the election] is based on issues, the election will swing to Trump. If it is based on candidate attributes, it will swing towards Harris. And we have no way of knowing where the campaign is going to go because we don't know what Trump's going to say over the next 90-something days."
If the election can swing three points in two weeks, considering how little time there is left before the election, and with Kamala likely to experience a boost after the upcoming Democratic National Convention, there really is no room for error. I believe it was a mistake for Trump to question Kamala's heritage during a Q&A session with the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) at their annual convention. When he was asked about Kamala being a DEI hire, he should have responded by saying that even Joe Biden admitted that he chose her because of her race and gender and left it at that.
Luntz is right. Trump needs to make this election about the issues and should stop leaning on personal attacks.
That's it. The question is, can he do that? Luntz has made it clear that he doesn't think Trump is capable of doing so, and in fairness, it's a legit assessment. But I'm hoping Trump's advisors have a serious discussion with him about how to conduct himself going forward.
