All signs suggest that Kamala Harris will pick Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) as her running mate, and it seems like a strategically wise choice on the surface. However, it’s also a huge gamble due to the potential backlash over his pro-Israel positions. It could also devastate his status as a popular governor with bipartisan support.
So far, we’ve seen two people on Harris’s VP shortlist take their names out of consideration: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.) and Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.), and the likely reason is that they don’t see Harris winning and don't want that hanging over their political futures. Cooper, for example, indicated that he wants to run for the Senate in 2026. Who gives up a shot at the vice presidency to run for the Senate?
But back to Shapiro. With him on the ticket, conventional wisdom says that Shapiro’s popularity would make Pennsylvania significantly more difficult for Donald Trump to win. But would that popularity last with Shapiro in the national spotlight?
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To answer that question, let’s look at the 2008 election, when Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) selected Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) as his running mate. At the time, she was the most popular governor in the country and had achieved approval ratings in the high 80s or low 90s.
All of that changed once she was on a national ticket. Her approval ratings in Alaska went down to the low 60s and eventually to the low-to-mid-50s after the election. Eventually, thanks to a slew of legal battles she had to endure, she decided not to seek reelection and resign as governor before the end of her term.
Shapiro, who also enjoys bipartisan support right now, is likely to see his approval ratings decline by joining a national ticket. Like Palin, Shapiro has been relatively insulated from national scrutiny even though he has already been subjected to damaging leaks and controversy since his name appeared on Kamala’s shortlist. It will only get worse if he's on the ticket.
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Shapiro has a reputation as a pragmatic leader who has managed to garner bipartisan support in a battleground state. Regardless of the outcome, that image will be shattered once he's completely thrust into the national spotlight. Attaching himself to Harris and owning her agenda will put him in a precarious position.
Harris is already under fire for her support for banning fracking — which is vital to Pennsylvania's economy. She may deny it now, but she's on the record. Ads linking Harris's opposition to fracking with Shapiro are going to hurt him as will her failed role as border czar. At the very least, the political benefit of Shapiro being on the ticket will diminish.
When McCain selected Palin as his running mate, it certainly invigorated his campaign, but that honeymoon didn't last. On the surface, selecting Shapiro seems like a smart move for Kamala because he will help her carry Pennsylvania, but whether that gets them to 270 Electoral College votes is unclear, and if Kamala loses, it could leave Shapiro's political future in ruins.
I guess we'll see if Shapiro thinks it's worth the risk.
