The 2024 election feels like a whirlwind these days, as various indicators are giving us mixed signals about the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Despite demographic shifts that are, frankly, devastating for Joe Biden, the polls in several battleground states make it clear that this will be a close election, likely dependent on the results of three states.
Yet, it's a poll from a non-battleground state making waves now.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows Trump ahead of Joe Biden by double digits in Iowa, with Trump leading 50% to 32% among likely voters with third-party candidates included in the poll. That's an 18-point lead.
The results come less than five months out from Election Day and before either candidate formally accepts his party’s nomination at their respective national conventions this summer.
They also come just weeks after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts related to hush money payments he made to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.
But the horse race numbers are largely unchanged from a February Iowa Poll, when Trump led Biden 48% to 33% among likely voters. Another 15% said they would vote for someone else.
Why does this matter, since Trump won Iowa in 2020 and 2016?
For one thing, the Des Moines Register poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is notorious for being extremely accurate. The final Des Moines Register poll of 2020 had Trump up seven points over Joe Biden, and Trump ultimately won the state by eight points.
Related: Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Take Trump’s Lead in the Polls for Granted
Again, this is not the real reason this poll is significant. What really makes this poll's result huge are the implications it has for other Midwestern states.
Meghan McCain, who is no fan of Trump, warned her followers on X/Twitter that Trump's substantial lead in Iowa likely means he'll win Wisconsin as well.
There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin.
— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) June 17, 2024
Ann Selzer is arguably the best pollster in the country (certainly Iowa) and her polls should be taken extremely seriously. https://t.co/tQukCaCahV
McCain is not the first person to note that the DMR poll in Iowa is predictive of the outcome in Wisconsin. Anti-Trumper Bill Kristol previously noted that the final DMR poll of 2016 showed that Trump had "a good shot in PA/WI/MI, and could win the whole thing."
And Trump did.
Based on recent polls, Biden would have to sweep the Great Lakes battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to have a chance at winning the election in November. Currently, Trump has a razor-thin lead in the polls in Wisconsin in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics averages. But if there's any truth to what McCain predicts, the polling out of Wisconsin is vastly underestimating Trump's support there, which means that if Trump is actually more comfortably ahead in Wisconsin than polls are reflecting, Joe Biden is in real trouble of losing the election.
There are definitely signs that this theory about the DMR poll is true, as recent polling shows Trump competitive (even ahead) in Minnesota—another midwestern state.
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