The Trump campaign has every reason to feel confident about his chances of winning in November. He’s maintained a steady lead in the polls for months now—even after the New York City trial verdict. But there’s an advantage Biden has that shouldn’t be ignored, and you need to know what’s going on because otherwise, this election could be a disaster.
According to a new analysis by Nate Cohn of the New York Times, Biden has a clear advantage among the most engaged voters.
"In a reversal of one of the most familiar patterns in American politics, it appears that Donald J. Trump, not President Biden, would stand to gain if everyone in the country turned out and voted,” Cohn writes. "In New York Times/Siena College polls over the last year, Mr. Biden holds a wide lead over Mr. Trump among regular primary and midterm voters, yet he trails among the rest of the electorate, giving Mr. Trump a lead among registered voters overall."
🇺🇲 2024 GE: In New York Times/Siena College polls over the last year
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2024
Voted in 2022 primary election
🟦 Biden: 49%
🟥 Trump: 44%
—
Voted in 2022 midterms but no primaries
🟦 Biden: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
Result among 2022 voters: Biden +3
——
Voted in 2020 Presidential Election… pic.twitter.com/Zeq0Ksgmaw
This is concerning because traditionally, Democrats have led with low-propensity voters, and Democrats have typically compensated for that with an extensive voter turnout operation. Biden now has the lead among high-propensity voters and the same well-oiled turnout machine. This could spell trouble for Trump.
"The disengaged voters do not necessarily like Mr. Trump, the polling shows. But they’re motivated by pocketbook issues, more desiring of fundamental changes to the political system, and far less concerned about democracy as an issue in the election,” Cohn explains. "Many low-turnout voters — notably including many who consider themselves Democrats — now say they’ll back Mr. Trump."
Cohn observes that "Even if Mr. Trump holds his edge among the disengaged, it’s not clear many of these low-turnout voters will ultimately show up to vote. But if they do vote, Mr. Trump would stand to gain — something unimaginable for a Republican as recently as a few years ago."
This unusual turnout dynamic is one of the central forces shaping the 2024 campaign. It helps explain why recent polls and election results seem so divergent, and why Mr. Trump has gained among young and nonwhite voters, who are less likely to vote than older white voters. It creates a challenge for the campaigns, who are finding that time-tested strategies for mobilizing irregular voters may not work quite the same way as they did in the past.
This doesn’t mean that Trump is doomed. Democrats are still clearly very worried about Biden’s chances, and there are still calls for him to drop out of the race. Pressure is being put on Justices Sotomayor and Kagan to resign so Biden can nominate younger replacements while he has the chance.
Meanwhile, Trump’s map is expanding, while Biden has to spend resources defending traditionally Democrat-voting states. When you consider all of these factors, there’s plenty reason to believe that Trump could be headed for a landslide victory, and that Democrats are keenly aware this—hence the panic. And, for what it’s worth, Republicans have a plan to convert those disengaged voters into actual votes. Will it work? I can’t predict that. The bottom line is that poll results aren’t actual votes, and Trump should campaign like he’s five points behind. We know what Democrats are capable of when they are desperate to win an election. I don’t care if the polls show Trump up by 10 points in all the battleground states. We can’t afford to pretend the polls will predict the outcome.
