I would never claim that Trump could win in a landslide unless I really thought it was possible. Lord knows I’ve dismissed talk about a “Trump landslide" in the past, because such claims made no sense. The electorate is too polarized for such a thing to occur. But, recent information has me thinking it is indeed possible in 2024.
As you know, Donald Trump is leading in the polls. National polls, battleground states... he’s doing better than he did in 2020 or 2016. Demographics are also looking good for him, as he’s seen spikes in support from black, Hispanic, and young voters. And then there’s Joe Biden. His record is pure garbage, and basically everyone thinks (even those who won’t admit it) that he’s too old and cognitively impaired to president.
All of these things are working in Trump’s favor, yet when it comes down to it, polls have suggested for a long time now that the outcome of this election will come down to the three Great Lakes battlegrounds: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And the polling is those states is close.
But, something is changing.
As I’ve previously noted, some recent polling has shown that both Minnesota and Virginia appear to be competitive this year. In fact, a poll from McLaughlin & Associates released last week showed Trump ahead in both a twoway match-up with Biden, and in a matchup with all third-party candidates. It sounded too good to be true because while polling in Minnesota has recently shown a close race, Biden has still consistently led in the polls there, even if only within or barely outside the margin of error. Plus, McLaughlin & Associates is Trump’s campaign pollster, and I think it’s safe practice to be skeptical of any campaign’s internal polling.
But, here’s where things get interesting. Trump isn’t just leading in an internal poll. Trump is leading both Virginia's and Minnesota’s Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling averages.
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 0.2% in Virginia and 1.6% in Minnesota according to Decision Desk HQ/@thehill's latest polling averages. pic.twitter.com/6vf3evh9Uq
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 14, 2024
There’s no reason to pretend this isn’t a big deal, because it is. Minnesota last voted Republican in 1972, and Virginia last voted Republican in 2004. For Trump to be competitive in these states is something, but to be leading in any polls there is huge.
And the Trump campaign is doing what it can to win there.
“Two sources with knowledge of the meeting told Fox News Digital on Thursday that Trump and Youngkin had discussed recent polling showing Trump neck-and-neck with President Biden in the Old Dominion State, after Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020. The meeting included discussions on how Trump can pull ahead of Biden as the election cycle further intensifies,” Fox News reported last week.
Related: This Is Why Democrats Are Panicking About Joe Biden
