Another Post-Verdict Poll That Will Terrify Joe Biden

It’s been amusing to see Democrats realizing that their lawfare strategy against Trump hasn’t been working. First, the indictments only boosted Trump’s position in GOP primary polling, and then the New York trial didn’t even hurt him. Various polls since last week's verdict have shown little to no shift towards Joe Biden, and some even suggest a boost for Donald Trump. 

So far, there’s little reason to believe that the verdict will be a watershed event that will help Biden retake the lead in the election. And Biden just got some more devastating news. A new poll of Virginia shows Trump and Biden in a dead heat.

While Virginia is not considered a battleground state this year, recent polling has shown that it is in play. And now, a new poll from Fox News shows that Biden and Trump are in a dead in Virginia, with both polling at 48%.

Biden gets strong backing from Black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%).

While Biden leads among Black voters, it is nowhere near where he was in 2020 – according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. In 2020, Biden won Blacks by 81 points, compared to 48 points in the new survey. Trump nearly triples his share among Black voters: 9% in 2020 to 25% today.

Trump's support is strongest among white evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%), and white voters (54%). There's no significant age gap, with voters under 30 and those 65 and over evenly split in their support for Biden and Trump. 

Independents are divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump), and there's only a slight gender divide, with men leaning toward Trump (+5) and women toward Biden (+6). In a potential five-way race, Biden narrowly leads Trump by 1 point (42%-41%), followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%, Cornel West at 2%, and Jill Stein at 2%, though so far, none of the third party candidates are on the ballot in Virginia.

For Our VIPs: If the Trump Verdict Won’t Impact The Election, What Will?

This poll is huge, not only because it shows Virginia tied when no one has considered it a battleground state but also because the poll was conducted entirely after the verdict is Trump’s New York trial. One might think that since Virginia hasn’t voted for a Republican since 2004 Trump wouldn’t be performing well there in a post-verdict poll. But the verdict matters little to Virginia voters, as other issues are more important than the results of a political prosecution.

The poll found that 66% of Virginians say Trump's conviction won't affect their vote, with 51% saying it won't matter at all. Meanwhile, 33% say the conviction will impact their vote significantly. Among those who consider the conviction important, Biden leads by 41 points, while Trump leads by 21 points among those who say it won't matter at all.

"Virginia is a must win state for Biden, so a tight race here is going to require some serious defense from his campaign to hold it," Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducted the poll with Republican Daron Shaw, explained to Fox News Digital. "But that appears possible, in that compared to elsewhere, Virginia voters are a little more positive about the economy and give Trump less of an advantage on the issues."