Virginia hasn't voted Republican since 2004, and Biden won the state comfortably in 2020. But 2024 is very different from 2020. I'm not exaggerating by saying that Trump has an opportunity to expand his map and win even more states than he did in 2016. And Virginia may very well be one of them.
Recent polling indicates a shifting political landscape.
While Biden has led in all the polls in Virginia this cycle, save for a Roanoke College poll from a year ago, Biden's lead has been stuck in the single digits, and his current RCP average is 4.3 points. This doesn't include some recent polling. For example, a new poll conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, firms with Republican and Democrat leanings, respectively, shows Biden with just a 1-point edge.
📊 VIRGINIA POLL: Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 13, 2024
🟦 Joe Biden 43%
🟥 Donald Trump 42%
⬜ Undecided 14%
—
Senate
🟦 Tim Kaine 48%
🟥 Hung Cao 36%
⬜ Undecided 16%
—
Job approval
Sen. Kaine: 54-28 (+26)
Gov. Youngkin: 53-36 (+17)
Trump recalled: 47-49 (-2)
Pres. Biden:… pic.twitter.com/jVQdfMmEgV
Obviously, there are some issues with this poll. It not only has a small sample size, but it also shows 14% of respondents are undecided.
Another recent poll shows Biden up by three points.
#NEW General Election Poll - Virginia
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 7, 2024
🔵 Biden 40%
🔴 Trump 37%
McLaughlin (R) #277 - 800 LV pic.twitter.com/8Tho2DAt5v
Now, this poll obviously comes with some caveats too. Perhaps the biggest one is that it was conducted by Trump's pollster, McLaughlin & Associates. Despite their solid reputation, it is always advisable to take internal polling results with a grain of salt. That said, the results of this poll are very much in line with recent polling in the state.
Related: Is This Next Battleground State To Become a Red State?
Why do these polls matter? Well, to understand that, we need to look back at 2020. Based on the polls tracked by RealClearPolitics, Biden had a consistently strong lead in polls. Of the 15 polls tracked, only four showed Biden with a single-digit lead, and the rest showed him with a double-digit lead. Of the nine polls taken between the summer of 2020 and the end of October, all but one showed Biden ahead by at least 11 points. As for the final results, he underperformed his average by roughly two points.
Four years ago, Biden enjoyed double-digit leads in the polls and ultimately won the state by a little over nine points. That's a huge shift compared to his current average lead of just 4.3 points. Now, consider this, despite winning Virginia by such a large margin in 2020, the Biden campaign has opened a new campaign office in Northern Virginia. Are we expected to believe that the Biden campaign believes they are safely ahead in Virginia if they're opening an office in the blue stronghold of Fairfax County? This appears to be a defensive move by the Biden campaign. I suspect they're looking at recent polling and are getting a little nervous.
It's very clear that Joe Biden is showing signs of an incumbent on a losing track. He should be trying to expand his map, not defending states that he won easily the last time. So, yes, Trump's campaign should be looking at Virginia as a state he can flip in November. The Biden campaign certainly thinks Trump can.
