We all know that Ohio and Florida have shifted firmly towards the GOP in recent years, turning these former bellwethers into reliably red states. While this is good news for Republicans, recent elections in Arizona and Georgia have suggested that these once reliably red states have become battleground states. So far, 2024 polling shows Donald Trump with comfortable leads in both states, however. So, at least there's that. But, aside from Ohio and Florida, there's another battleground state that appears to be following in their footsteps.
And that state is Pennsylvania. Despite its historical status as a battleground state, it tends to favor Democratic candidates. Pennsylvania represents a perennially contested but seldom secured prize for the GOP. Trump narrowly secured victory there in 2016, but before that, the last Republican to win there was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Perhaps Ohio and Florida have been replaced by Pennsylvania as the new bellwether state in presidential politics That may hold true for 2024, but the state also appears to be trending red and could find itself to be the next battleground-turned-red-state. As I previously noted earlier this month, Republicans are closing the gap in voter registrations in Pennsylvania. In just four years, the Democrats' registration advantage in the state has dwindled significantly.
"Since I first started tracking voter registrations trends in Pennsylvania, Republicans have generally eaten into Democrats’ historic advantage. This is the first time I can recall, however, that the GOP posted gains in all 67 counties throughout the commonwealth," writes Penn-Star Capital correspondent Nick Field. "Furthermore, the comparison to the last Presidential cycle is particularly stark. Back during the COVID-delayed voter registration deadline in May 2020, the Democratic advantage was D+803,427. Today it stands at 397,241. In that time 122,639 more voters have joined the rolls, yet Dems have lost 195,867 registrants as the Republicans gained 210,319. All the while, independent voters who chose either no affiliation or some other party rose 108,187."
Related: New CNN Poll Is a Bloodbath for Joe Biden
"Even the shift since last October is significant," Field continued. "Back then, the Democratic advantage was 445,890. Over this period, Democrats lost 4,560 registrants, while Republicans gained 44,089 and Independents added 26,233. Therefore, let’s dive into the regional breakdowns in order to dig deeper into this movement."
Don't miss my @PennCapitalStar on turnout in last week's Pennsylvania primaryhttps://t.co/UzHXw19GdC pic.twitter.com/KkwLv8fkCm
— Nick Field (@nick_field90) April 28, 2024
Dave McCormick, the Republican candidate looking to unseat U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr., believes that if this trend continues, Pennsylvania will become a red state by 2028.
“There was about a one million registered voter advantage among Democrats over Republicans in Pennsylvania, the year that Trump won in 2016. Today, it’s less than 400,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, and I think by Election Day, it’ll be closer to 300,000,” McCormick noted on Sirius XM's Breitbart News Channel. "And by 2028, we’re going to be red, and I’m going to come on your program a year or two after I become a senator, and we’re going to talk about the fact that Pennsylvania has flipped to being a red state."
Let’s hope!
