Given the disaster that Joe Biden's presidency has become, it makes perfect sense that some of the states he won last time would flip back to Trump this year. Battleground state polling shows Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia — all states whose Electoral College votes went to Biden in 2020. But are blue states becoming competitive as well?
I've recently pointed to polling that suggests that Maine could be competitive this year — and I still believe it is possible — but a new poll from The Bullfinch Group sponsored by The Independent Center suggests that another blue state is competitive as well.
According to the poll, in a two-way matchup, Trump leads Biden by a point in Washington State and leads him by five points in a five-way matchup that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West.
2024 Washington GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 6, 2024
Trump 46% (+1)
Biden 45%
.
Trump 40% (+5)
Biden 35%
Kennedy 13%
Stein 4%
West 1%
.@BullfinchGroup/@Independent_Cen, RV, 4/16-23https://t.co/oeGRWcWvYv
I'd love to believe in this poll. But I'm going to urge skepticism. Here's why. The poll was part of a survey of registered voters in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington with a sample size of 1,250. This means that by state, the sample size is small, and the margin of error for each state is ±6.22, which is rather high and suggests that the virtual tie between the candidates is an outlier.
Further undermining the results of this poll is that we haven't seen any other polls that show the state as remotely competitive. In March, an Echelon Insights poll showed Biden up 11 points in Washington, and before that, a Public Policy Polling survey from February showed Biden up 16 points.
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So you're probably wondering why I don't believe Washington isn't competitive but Maine is. That's simple. A poll from February showed Biden leading by just eight points in Maine's 1st District, while Trump had a substantial 20-point lead in the 2nd District, which translated into a six-point advantage for Trump statewide.
While this is just one poll, and save for a poll sponsored by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (which also showed Trump ahead there), there hasn't been any new polling out of Maine since. However, unlike Washington, past polling by another polling outfit from November found Biden only ahead by a point statewide.
So there is plenty of good reason to have more faith that Trump can flip Maine over Washington. And Maine could be an important state for Trump if he makes a play there. Why? Because if Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and three of Maine's four Electoral College votes, he could win the presidency without winning any of the "blue wall" states, which are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
I should point out that Trump leads in those states currently, but putting Maine into his column could insulate his lead. In an election that is widely expected to be close, it could make a difference.
