It seemed like just a couple of months ago, people were speculating about Donald Trump picking Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his running mate. And that's because it was just a couple of months ago. I never put any stock in such rumors because they made no sense, but according to reports, Kennedy didn't write it off. Also, I think some conservatives were actually excited about the idea.
For some reason, Kennedy managed to attract support from Republican voters who were less than enthused about Trump's inevitable status as the Republican nominee. Blinded by his skepticism of the COVID vaccines, they refused to acknowledge that Kennedy was actually a radical leftist, and he even managed to get a speaking opportunity at the CPAC Investor Summit to Save America last year.
Last year, Kennedy said he would “take many more votes from President Trump than I do from President Biden." At the time, polls showed he was right. His independent candidacy was hurting Trump, and his campaign seemed to be aware of this.
“It’s single digits, but it’s enough where it counts to make a difference,” a Trump campaign insider said back in October.
However, polls today all show that RFK Jr. is now hurting Biden and helping Trump in both national and battleground state polling.
According to his campaign, Kennedy has secured a spot on the ballot in Utah and anticipates qualifying for the ballot in Nevada, Hawaii, and New Hampshire based on signature collection efforts. Additionally, American Values 2024, the super PAC backing Kennedy, claims to have gathered enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. Several of these states are battleground states — where his inclusion on the ballot could make a significant difference.
Related: RFK Jr. Picks Radical Leftist As Running Mate
"In the RCP averages Trump’s lead grows from 5.4 to 7 percent in Arizona; 5 to 7.4 percent in Georgia; 4.3 to 6.4 percent in Nevada; 5.0 to 7.7 percent in North Carolina; 0.5 percent to 2.7 percent in Pennsylvania; and 1.2 to 3.7 percent in Wisconsin (Michigan is an outlier, with Trump’s lead dropping slightly — from 3.9 to 3.3 percent — when the other candidates are added in)," notes Ed Kilgore at New York Magazine.
Kilgore made another observation that is worth mentioning here. He mentioned three key factors "that may well affect the size and shape of Kennedy’s vote in the future." The first factor was who Kennedy would pick as his running mate. We now know that he has picked California attorney Nicole Shanahan, a radical leftist. I don't think it's a mistake that Kilgore listed this variable first. Had Kennedy managed to find a centrist, or perhaps even a libertarian-leaning running mate, it could have been an opportunity for him to pick off votes from Donald Trump and shift his impact in the race from being a drag on Biden to a drag on Trump.
Frankly, that would have been a smart move. But instead, Kennedy chose Shanahan. In all likelihood, the conservatives who have looked to Kennedy as some sort of protest vote against Trump will start to rethink their plans. Shanahan may be a political novice, but her inclusion on the ticket may also help entice liberal voters who are disenchanted with Joe Biden.
If Kennedy had wanted to be more of a threat to Trump than Biden, he could have picked a running mate who would have created a unity ticket. That would have increased his appeal to conservative voters who flirted with supporting him last year and have since flocked back to Trump.
One thing is for sure: this is bad news for Joe Biden.
