When it was first reported that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. planned to launch an independent presidential bid, many on the right were elated. They figured that in a tight general election, Kennedy, a Democrat, would likely siphon votes away from Joe Biden, making it that much easier for Trump or another Republican to win in 2024.
I’ve long had reservations about accepting this as a foregone conclusion. And the Trump campaign appears to be aware that Kennedy may indeed be more of a threat to Trump than to Biden.
Many will note that Kennedy has consistently maintained double-digit support in Democratic primary match-up polling, which certainly suggests that he can be a spoiler for Biden in a close election. But it’s not so simple. Polling data shows that his popularity is higher among Republican voters than among Democrats. While a sizable number of Democrats would prefer Kennedy to Biden, there’s little reason to believe that his independent candidacy would ensure Biden’s defeat.
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So far, there have been no general election matchup polls that have included Kennedy as a third-party candidate. But according to a report from Semafor, internal polling from Trump’s campaign suggests that an independent bid by Kennedy could siphon away more votes from Trump than Biden.
“It’s single digits, but it’s enough where it counts to make a difference,” a Trump campaign insider told the outlet. That assessment was echoed by another person familiar with the polling.
“We’re gonna be dropping napalm after napalm on his head reminding the public of his very liberal views, dating back to 2012,” another source close to the campaign told Semafor. “We have a lot of stuff on him.”
This is not the only poll showing Kennedy is a bigger threat to Trump.
A poll from American Values 2024 PAC conducted by Zogby Strategies also suggests that Kennedy’s independent presidential bid would attract more support away from former President Donald Trump than from incumbent Joe Biden.
The poll found that conservative voters have indicated that Kennedy embodies more traditional conservative values, whereas Democratic voters, fatigued by familiar candidates, are looking for a change and see him as a unifying figure. American Values 2024 PAC is a super PAC backing Kennedy, and the candidate has long maintained that he would take more support from Trump.
Despite being a Democrat with largely liberal views, Kennedy has been getting a lot of love recently from conservatives. In fact, he was recently announced as a speaker at a CPAC Summit in Las Vegas that is taking place later this month.
However, a poll from Echelon Insights shows that while an independent bid from Kennedy would draw votes from both Biden and Trump, his inclusion in the race would increase Trump’s margin over Biden by a mere point.
NEW FINDINGS: In our latest poll, we found that an Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would INCREASE Donald Trump's margin over Joe Biden by one point(!)
Later today, we'll be sharing our September Omnibus poll so you can get all the details! pic.twitter.com/f5qheJSOUj
— Echelon Insights (@EchelonInsights) October 2, 2023
The poll cross tabs show that Kennedy draws 17% of Biden voters and 11% of Trump voters.
Of course, one factor not included here is Cornel West’s candidacy. Though West has increased Trump’s margin over Biden in past polls, he has since left the Green Party in favor of an independent bid, which may diminish his impact on the race.
What impact will Kennedy actually have? One thing is for sure: we don’t know, but conservatives celebrating the news of his planned independent bid may have done so prematurely.
