If you haven’t already heard, a Fox News voter analysis of New Hampshire primary voters had some pretty shocking results. According to the analysis, more than a third of them said they would never vote for Donald Trump in November.
Don’t take the voter analysis seriously. Let me explain why.
First, I should note that the liberals were quick to pounce on the results.
"While Trump predictably called it a huge victory and signaled to his surrogates to call for Haley to drop out, the margin of victory isn’t that big, and the voter analysis from Fox News suggests deeper problems for Trump’s viability in a general election,” claimed Mediate.
They weren’t alone, either. Fox News’ Steve Doocy pointed out that, based on the voter analysis, just 53% of Republicans say they would be satisfied if Trump won the nomination.
“But here’s the problem for the former president,” he continued. “According to our voter analysis, 35% of Republicans said they would not vote for Donald Trump.” He also pointed to a Politico article claiming that “43% of Nikki Haley voters yesterday would vote for Joe Biden.”
Fox News conducted a similar voter analysis in Iowa, and found that 30% of Republican voters would not vote for Haley in November, 28% said they wouldn’t vote for DeSantis, and 21% said they wouldn’t vote for Trump.
If you believe these numbers are completely legitimate and accurately reflect Republican voting intentions in November, then the election is over. Done. Finished. Caput. Don’t even bother holding the election. Why? These numbers suggest that a significant portion of the Republican electorate won’t vote for the GOP nominee if the nominee isn’t the candidate they supported in the primary.
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We hear a lot of this kind of sentiment in every open primary. Voters develop a strong sense of loyalty towards one candidate and promise they won’t support any other in the general election. This happens on both sides of the aisle, by the way. In 2008, there was reportedly a significant contingent of Hillary Clinton supporters who said they wouldn’t support Barack Obama. Remember the PUMAs (Party Unity My Ass)? How’d that work out?
But let’s get back to the 2024 election.
Numerous polls have been conducted for the upcoming 2024 presidential election -- primary polls, national general election matchup polls, and battleground state matchup polls. If there was any indication that a substantial portion, ranging from 20 to 50%, of Republican voters might not support Trump, DeSantis, or Haley, the current data from these matchup polls tells a different story. All three candidates have outperformed Biden in various polls, thus completely debunking the notion of significant dissension within the GOP ranks.
If the polls accurately mirrored the sentiments of GOP voters found in the Fox News voter analysis from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Biden would lead in every scenario. However, the reality appears quite the opposite. It would take an ever smaller faction of Republicans refusing to vote for Trump to translate to a lack of competitiveness. But he is not only holding his ground but is also the apparent frontrunner.
Certainly, there will be supporters of DeSantis or Haley within the Republican camp claiming they won't vote for Trump in the general election. I've seen plenty of them on social media. Some of them may not. However, those who choose to sit out the election or vote third party won't amount to a statistically significant figure capable of altering the overall outcome.
