I've never given much credence to the theory that Democrats want to face Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election because they figure he'd be the easiest candidate to beat. Even if they did, there's no reason to believe that they do so now. Despite all the attacks, the partisan prosecutions, and everything else they've thrown at him, Trump has either been tied with Biden or ahead of him in the RealClearPolitics average since mid-September, and his lead over Biden iis trending up.
If Democrats were banking on Trump being unelectable next year, they were clearly wrong. In fact, Trump wasn't polling this well against Biden in 2020 or Hillary in 2016. I dare say that, at this point, there's no reason not to believe he can win not only the Electoral College, but the national popular vote as well.
Democrats have been concerned about Trump's viability in the general election for months now, and from their perspective, the situation has only gotten worse since then. In June, they were worried when national match-up polls showed a statistical tie; now polls are showing Trump up two, four, and six points, depending on the outlet.
For that reason, Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for MAGA Inc., says that "Dems are panicking" about facing Trump next November.
“You look at Joe Biden and the Democrats—they are panicking, and they’re panicking, not because of Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. They are panicking because they see the general election polling time and time again—the New York Times polling again, the RealClearPolitics average, you have very liberal pollsters like Emerson College in Boston, that are…showing that general election voters across party lines are supporting President Trump,” Leavitt told Breitbart News. She also noted that several polls also show Trump besting Biden among independent voters by double digits.
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“His numbers with Hispanic Americans are absolutely earth-shattering for the Democrat Party. If these hold, come next November—and it’s our goal to make sure that they do—that enough right there will kill Joe Biden’s chances at a second term. And so the Dems are panicking,” she added.
Leavitt argued that the Biden campaign has spent more money on ads defending Biden's presidency than any incumbent in history "because they know that they have to try and sell something to the American people.” She added that Biden has historically had low approval ratings and that polls have shown that Americans believe the economy was stronger during Trump's presidency.
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Some strategists have argued that even Barack Obama was struggling in the polls a year before he was reelected. But Obama's disapproval ratings weren't nearly as high as Biden's are now. Further, Biden's approval ratings have been underwater since August of his first year in office, suggesting that voter discontent is essentially baked into the Biden cake. Barack Obama was also much younger and not facing overwhelming concerns about his age and cognitive health the way Joe Biden is—concerns that are only to get worse the closer we get to the election.
