Despite Biden's supporters touting his so-called "historic accomplishments," Democrats are undeniably anxious as they observe polls predicting a historic defeat for Joe Biden next November. Voters have been saying for a few years now that they didn’t want to see Joe Biden run again. They think he’s too old and not mentally competent enough for the job. Combine that with his terrible record, and Democrats have little hope that Biden can change the trajectory of this race.
If they thought going against Trump would make victory in 2024 easier for them, the polls all show that it was a terrible assumption. But Team Biden thinks he’s still the best candidate Democrats could offer who can beat Donald Trump. So there’s no reason to believe that Biden will drop out if he and everyone around him thinks that doing so will seal the party’s fate in the 2024 election.
What can Democrats do? Well, they actually can get rid of him... if they want to. According to a Democratic National Convention document from last year, there is a mechanism in place for replacing him.
In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.
Biden has a tendency for making gaffes and getting lost on stage, among other issues that call his mental competence into question. That's why it’s not out of the realm of possibility that a Democrat Party desperate to avoid defeat could forcibly remove Biden from the ticket by declaring him disabled — which many people believe he is.
The question is: would they do this?
It’s a tricky proposition. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled for August 19-22 in Chicago, roughly 75 days ahead of the election. That’s awfully close to the election to introduce a brand new candidate atop the ticket. While the rule is arguably open to interpretation, it appears that the party would only replace a nominee who dies, resigns, or becomes disabled, and Kamala Harris would remain on the ticket in this circumstance.
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That would be good for the Democrats because it could keep Harris from becoming the presidential nominee. It would be bad for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has been running a shadow campaign for the presidency because the Constitution declares that both candidates on a ticket can come from the same state.
Newsom can’t change his residency since he’s the sitting governor of California, and you can bet Kamala Harris wouldn’t change her residency to accommodate someone other than her topping the ticket. Other Democrats have national PACs, but it’s still hard to see how changing the ticket so close to the election would be a good move.
For Democrats, the sooner they can replace Biden the better.
