There’s really no need to beat a dead horse on the outcome of Tuesday’s elections in Ohio, Kentucky, and Virginia. It was not a great day for Republicans, but it’s nevertheless a learning opportunity for them to understand how and why they keep losing winnable elections. Abortion was a key issue of the elections, and it’s an issue that succeeds in boosting turnout among Democrats who have been led to believe that even the most mainstream of abortion restrictions are total bans. This has given Democrats a huge boost in off-year elections.
It’s easy to feel like the GOP is doomed, but trust me, there’s always a silver lining.
If you’re in the Biden White House right now, you’re likely advising Joe Biden to make the 2024 election about abortion. Why not? It’s been working so far, right? Of course, it didn’t take Tuesday’s elections to give Democrats an epiphany about this. They’ve been all about abortion, abortion, abortion since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision was leaked early. But abortion isn’t likely to have the same impact in 2024 as it did in 2023 or even 2022.
For starters, off-year and midterm elections have much lower turnout, meaning the impact the abortion issue will have on the 2024 election will likely not be nearly as pronounced. That doesn’t mean the GOP shouldn’t fine-tune its abortion messaging, but polls have shown that the issue won’t nearly be as important in 2024 as the economy.
However, yesterday's elections may signal to many in the Democrat party that Joe Biden might actually have a chance in 2024 — despite recent polling showing him to be on the verge of an embarrassing defeat. Calls for Biden to drop out have been getting louder in recent weeks. Could Democrats become so blinded by their abortion tunnel vision that they are stupid enough to think Biden can defy the polls and coast to victory on the abortion issue alone, and that the economy won’t matter? Democrats have made stupid miscalculations before, like when they didn’t realize that parents actually believe in parental rights — and lost the governorship of Virginia in 2021.
Democrats always make abortion an issue in elections — it’s what they do — but polling consistently shows that the issues people will care about most in 2024 overwhelmingly benefit Republicans. But Team Biden is likely going to see the elections on Tuesday as proof that he can overcome all the negatives weighing down his candidacy. This means Biden has new reason to believe he should stay in the race. Tuesday's elections didn't change the dynamics of the 2024 race, though — just Democrats' perception of them.
So, while Tuesday’s elections were a gift to Biden, they were also a gift to Trump and the GOP. It’s a lot easier to make the election a referendum on Biden if Biden is still in the race. And right now, even with the abortion issue front and center, Trump is beating Biden in the polls.
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