By now you’re well aware of Joe Biden’s political troubles. There are few polls out there that offer a glimmer of hope for Biden’s chances to win against Donald Trump (or any Republican) next year. Biden’s allies, however, are going through a serious case of denial and have a habit of pointing to Barack Obama’s third-year poll numbers as proof that there’s no reason to be concerned about Biden’s chances next year. Well, they’re wrong. There’s absolutely no comparison between Biden’s current numbers and Obama’s back in 2011.
Alarm bells went off following the release of the latest NYT/Siena poll showing Biden trailing Trump in five of the six battleground states that will decide the 2024 election. While there are plenty of pundits on the left expressing concern, there are also plenty dismissing it as nothing to worry about, citing Obama’s third-year polling.
"Unfortunately, this comparison doesn’t hold up under scrutiny,” explains Matt Lewis of the Daily Beast. "Obama was a once-in-a-generation political talent; Biden is not. Obama also had the potential to excite and drive the turnout of young voters and minority voters. Biden does not."
Lewis also argued that Obama’s opponent in 2012 made his reelection much easier. "What is more, Obama was running against Mitt Romney, a Republican he could villainize and define (see the 'war on women,' 'binders full of women,' 'the 47 percent,' etc.) and whose personal comportment caused to him to be not the most effective political pugilist.”
He makes an incredibly valid point. Obama’s ability to inspire his supporters stands in stark contrast to Biden's knack for getting lost on stage and struggling to make a coherent sentence. Obama’s economic record was hardly better than Biden’s, but Obama didn’t face questions about his age or his physical stamina. Obama may have won the 2012 election, but he did so with roughly 3.6 million fewer votes and two fewer states than he had in 2008. Trump, a fighter if there ever was one, got 11.3 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016.
It’s debatable that, had it not been for the raid that resulted in the death of Osama bin Laden, Obama may have been defeated, but so far there hasn’t been any kind of comparable event for Biden to run on. Don't forget that Biden's public support of Israel since the start of the Israel-Hamas war has taken a huge toll on his support from within his own party.
Yes, Obama had many failures as president, and the economy was certainly one of them. His 2009 stimulus failed spectacularly in its goal to keep the unemployment rate under 8% (it hit 10% in October 2009), but Democrats weren’t willing to punish the first black president for his failed policies the way they are willing to punish the old white guy in the Oval Office today. And Obama didn’t make the mistake of branding the economy Obamanomics the way Biden has branded the current economy Bidenomics.
But the truth is that Biden’s problems are deeper than the ones Obama experienced. Much deeper. Obama’s approval ratings tended to fluctuate, dipping in and out of negative territory. Biden’s approval ratings have remained in negative territory since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, suggesting that his base of support is significantly smaller than Obama’s. The aforementioned NYT/Siena poll doesn't only show Biden’s political vulnerability in 2024, but it also shows the apparent collapse of the Democratic coalition, which is critical to the party’s longtime viability.
So to make a long story short, there’s virtually no reason to suggest that Obama’s third-year slump is anything comparable to Biden’s.
