We’re going to engage in a little #TGIF speculation about the state of the nation and our upcoming presidential election. This is a topic I’ve tiptoed around lately because I’ve not been exactly overflowing with optimism.
I gotta say, thanks to the rioting CHAZ/CHOP types on the Left, I’m perking up a bit these days.
In a Briefing last month, I wondered whether anyone believed the polls even though I knew the question was largely rhetorical for devoted readers here. Well, maybe not for our regular trolls, but they believed the polls in 2016 too and that’s a big part of what made election night so delicious. That’s why we keep the trolls around, for moments like that. And for the clicks.
It’s been a little over three weeks since that post and the polls are getting worse for President Trump. A CNN poll at the beginning of the month had Trump behind Biden by 14 and a new Fox News poll has him down by 12. My instinctive response to those numbers is: on what planet can the drooling moron Biden be leading a presidential race by that much? That’s what makes me doubt the polls even more so than the fact that they were so spectacularly wrong in 2016.
I was recording a VIP podcast on Thursday with my comedian friend Kevin Downey Jr, who is a huge Trump fan. He doesn’t think the polls are off, he thinks they’re flat-out lying. Given the overwhelming toxicity of Trump Derangement Syndrome, I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the case. There never was an adequate explanation for why they were all so wrong in the last election so we’re left with only two conclusions: the pollsters are all incompetent or they were being deliberately duplicitous. Don’t say it’s a combination of both, because incompetent people couldn’t orchestrate that kind of grand-scale duplicity.
Long after I gave up trying to predict what would happen in 2016, I remained convinced of one thing: Trump support in flyover country was being severely underrepresented in the polls. As polling hasn’t undergone any overhaul since then, there is no reason to believe that isn’t the case again this year. For the most part, coastal voters are a fixed part of the electorate. The votes that will win this election for either candidate are to be found more inland. For Republicans, it usually comes down to about 20 drunks in Ohio. This year, I think those drunks have moved to Michigan.
I can’t for the life of me fathom how the social unrest of the past few weeks helps Biden and the Democrats in any way. Sure, it energizes the indoctrinated leftist youth, but there is no way older Democrats who have jobs, kids, and mortgages are looking at Democratic officials celebrating CHAZ/CHOP and other anarchist nonsense and feeling like they want to go all-in for November. I don’t necessarily think the past few weeks have flipped people like that to Trump, but I do believe it will dampen their enthusiasm for voting at all. Those kinds of things are never reflected in the polls.
Another thing that could be skewing the polls that has nothing to do with the pollsters is the fact that Trump voters may be uncomfortable being forthcoming. That was widely thought to be part of the problem in 2016.
What I am getting at here is that none of this fits. Biden is a drooling moron who can’t get through a 90-second script without forgetting where he is. The worst of what has gone on throughout the pandemic shutdowns and the protests and riots has been in very blue states and cities. It’s difficult to believe that a significant portion of the electorate is opting for that chaos.
I truly believe that Trump has the voter enthusiasm edge by a large margin and we’re about to see that now that he is doing rallies again. That’s not always easy to gauge in a poll but the turnout for the GOP primaries for an uncontested incumbent was pretty impressive this year. The press won’t talk about it, but I’m sure that’s got some Democratic officials sweating.
The impact of the polls is debatable. The media loves to hype them but it’s likely that only political junkies are paying a lot of attention to them.
We all know that Trump was getting trounced in the polls at this point in the 2016 cycle. In fact, he was getting trounced in the polls right up until Election Day. He didn’t have all of liberal America losing their damn minds then and he still had a comfortable electoral victory.
If the “peaceful protests” and defund police lunacy last through the summer he may just win in a popular landslide.
TBH, I’m Half Irish and the Lucky Charms Leprechaun Kinda Irritates Me
— ABC 7 Chicago (@ABC7Chicago) June 19, 2020
Comments of the Week
Re: the shutdowns and ruining small businesses:
From the Mothership and Beyond
AOC Takes Vow Of Silence To End Racism, Immediately Gains Bipartisan Support https://t.co/uw4lrhKm1A
— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) June 18, 2020
The Kruiser Kabana
— mood:odd (@moododd) June 17, 2020
Maybe some of us will get to be in the same re-education camps.
PJ Media Senior Columnist and Associate Editor Stephen Kruiser is the author of “Don’t Let the Hippies Shower” and “Straight Outta Feelings: Political Zen in the Age of Outrage,” both of which address serious subjects in a humorous way. Monday through Friday he edits PJ Media’s “Morning Briefing.” His columns appear twice a week.