No, George W. Bush Will Not Be the Last GOP President

A few days ago Myra Adams wrote a piece at the PJ Tatler titled “Could George W. Bush Be the Last Republican President?” Citing a list of ten reasons, Adams claimed she was forced to “conclude that President George W. Bush and President Millard Fillmore might just have something in common.” Fervently disagreeing with Ms. Adams, I would like to set her mind at ease with a much different reading of the facts.

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For each bold-typed assertion made by Adams, I would like to offer my own response:

1. Rapidly changing demographic trends that favor the Democrat Party.

The deck of the article Adams linked to explicitly states that demographic trends do not necessarily favor the Democratic Party: “Millennials and minorities, who boosted Obama in 2008, are growing, while white working-class voters, Romney’s bread and butter, are declining. But those loyalties could shift in the coming years, analysts tell Eleanor Clift.”

The body of the piece explains that demographics, may, in fact, shift to the Republicans’ favor. Clift writes:

Confronted with all this data favoring Democrats at a discussion sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center, Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics, cautioned against expecting current trends to last far into the future. … “The long-term trend is slightly toward Republicans,” Trende said. He noted that last year, there was net migration back to Mexico, a trend recently confirmed by a Pew Research Center survey that found immigration from Mexico “has come to a standstill.”

Moreover, the demographics debate, which claims that one group’s expansion will help or hurt Republicans, is founded solely on stereotypes and tends to be proffered by paternalist liberals (not that Myra is one of these people) who treat white people as if they are the only group made up of individuals. Everyone else — according to this idea — votes solely based on skin color, religion, etc. Conservatives do not need to fall for this trap: free markets, individualism, and economic empowerment generated from creating consumer choice in education, medicine, and other aspects of life work for the benefit of everyone. Conservative ideas — or at least classical liberal ones — have lasted for centuries. Liberalism, in its modern incarnation, has not.

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2. An education system controlled by liberals that churns out young liberals.

Liberals have controlled the U.S. education system for decades. Since the founding of the Department of Education, only one Democrat has received a majority of the popular vote in a presidential election: Barack Obama. George Bush lost the youth vote in 2004, but he more or less tied Kerry among those aged 25-29. Furthermore, enrollment in public schools is trending down as the charter school movement has picked up steam.

3. A population with an ever-increasing dependence on government in the form of entitlements and subsidies.

You cannot outrun math. The current model is going to fail and everyone knows it. Steve Laffey, the former mayor of Cranston, RI, who saved the city from default, recently released the best movie no one has seen — yet. In Fixing America, he travels the country, showing how engaged and ready the nation’s citizens are to solve its problems. The Tea Party formed precisely out of this re-awakening.

4. A mainstream media that is overwhelmingly comprised of journalists who subtly and not so subtly spin the news in support of Democrats and liberal causes.

When hasn’t this been the case? Furthermore, the mainstream media is dying. The Internet is winning.

5. The influence of Hollywood, which makes it cool to be a liberal Democrat.

The coolest guy on campus is not Barack Obama. It is Ron Paul and his message of small government.

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6. The growing power concentrated in local, state, and federal government worker unions, whose members actively campaign against Republicans on the taxpayer dime.  (See WI Governor Walker’s upcoming recall election for an active example of this.)

Adams references Walker’s recall, but she fails to note that his Democratic candidates are not even running against his reform of public sector unions. They can’t — his policy worked. Besides, Walker is more than ready to stand his ground, and polling shows a tight election much like the one he experienced in 2010.

7. A culture where non-traditional social and sexual behavior has become mainstream.

This was said in the 1960s. Since 1968, Republicans have controlled the White House for 28 years to the Democrats’ 16. Eight of those years resulted from Bill Clinton winning the presidency without a majority of votes.

8. A hatred for Republicans in general and a tendency to blame the party for “the mess we’ve inherited.”

This is the weakest of Adams’s arguments. Democrats used “the mess we’ve inherited” line throughout the 2010 midterms. The result was one of the largest congressional defeats in history.

9. A Republican Party that is growing increasingly white, old, southern, and male, while alienating majorities of younger voters, Hispanics, African Americans, gays, teachers, young professionals, atheists, unmarried women, and even suburban married women.

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If Mitt Romney doesn’t beat Obama, the following people will most likely consider running for president in 2016: Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Chris Christie, Allen West, Condi Rice, Sarah Palin, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Brian Sandoval. That is a diverse list of gender, religious denomination, ethnicity, and regional background. The only people currently over the age of 55 — the average age of previously elected presidents — are Condoleezza Rice and Jeb Bush. Most of these possible contenders are under the age of 50.

In 2016, the Democrats will have five main contenders: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Mark Warner, and Evan Bayh. Only Cuomo, at 54, is under the age of 55. Of the current Democratic governors in office, all except Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick are white and only two are female: North Carolina’s Bev Purdue and Washington’s Christine Gregoire — both of whom are retiring due to very poor approval ratings. Which party, did Adams say, lacks diversity in its up and coming ranks?

10. The Internet and the growing social media phenomenon that strongly tilts in favor of Democrats.

This is not the case. Conservative websites like PJ Media, Hot Air, Drudge, and Townhall all rank fairly high in audience numbers according to Alexa.com, which ranks Internet traffic. Three of them rank higher than the Daily Kos and all rank above Talking Points Memo.

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Adams points to nine swing states that “total 115 electoral votes, of which Romney must win 100 if he is to reach 270.” However, Ace of Spades does a daily projection of the presidential map, and the nine states Adams lists are not the only swing states, excluding liberal leaning states that are up for grabs such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Obama must hold those states to have a chance, and all three recently elected Republicans to high office.

Millard Fillmore became the last Whig president because his party had no answer for the biggest issue of its day — slavery. For nearly a decade, Whigs tried to mask their impotence with political games and distractions, hoping that their focus on minor issues could keep the party afloat.  In 1848 they ran a candidate for president who declared himself “post-partisan” and who would “rise above the fray” of divisive politics. (He won the election and became President Zachary Taylor.) The Whigs fell apart because they refused to engage with the people on the most important issue facing the country.

That may sound familiar. The biggest threat facing the nation today is the debt crisis, which we are steadily approaching. It is not the Republicans who do not have a plan, and it is not the Republicans who are the new Whigs. Mitt Romney may not be the next Republican president — though I think he will be — but W. will almost certainly not be the last.

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