IRAN: What Happens When There's Not Enough Regime Left to Change?

Ali Larijani, the closest thing Iran's Islamic Republic currently has (er, had) to a political leader, is believed dead following an Israeli airstrike Tuesday. And that's just the start of today's good news concerning Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion.

It seems like only yesterday [It was only yesterday, Steve —Editor] that we discussed how Iran's regime losses — from the topmost echelons all the way down to Basij street-thug enforcers — make the country increasingly ripe for regime change.

Well, yesterday's news of limited drone strikes on individual Basij thugs pales in comparison to today's news from Mossad Commentary [unofficial]: "Overnight strikes reportedly killed ~300 Basij commanders and field officials, targeting key command, logistics, and operational centers across Tehran."

Facilities hit include "vehicle repair units, Mohammad Rasoulollah Corps HQ, Imam Hadi command center, and Imam Ali battalions." The result is that "the Basij’s capability to mobilize against protests and maintain internal control" is severely degraded.

It's this big a deal:

🔴 COMMANDER OF THE BASIJ UNIT ELIMINATED

Yesterday, the IDF targeted & eliminated Gholamreza Soleimani, who operated as commander of the Basij unit for the past 6 years.

Under Soleimani, the Basij unit led the main repression operations in Iran, employing severe violence,… pic.twitter.com/aJ0dNtCFz0
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

It's enough to make you wonder what happens when there's not enough regime left to change.

Or as I wrote yesterday, "When the guards stop showing up for work is when the prisoners break free."

The last few days saw increasing reports of low-ranking Basij and IRGC soldiers deserting, or trying to and getting shot by their superiors. Just like the regime's political leadership, Basij and IRGC seem to be running out of superiors.

But blowing up Larijani — that's the cherry on top of today's pile of well-deserved corpses.

It's this big a deal:

🔴Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated.

Throughout the years, Larijani was considered one of the most veteran and senior figures within the Iranian regime leadership, and was a close associate… pic.twitter.com/kBIgSSGBm0
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026

PJ Media's own Rick Moran reminded me this morning, "Larijani was the last of the Obama-era leaders who played Obama and Kerry like a fiddle." He was last seen out on the streets in public a few days ago, trash-talking President Donald Trump.

To paraphrase Sarah Palin, "How's that trashy-talky thing workin' out for ya?"

And Another Thing: A New York Times "analysis" piece framed the Larijani news like so: "Israel’s Killing of Ali Larijani Could Allow Military to Tighten Grip on Iran." That's laughable on its face, of course, but that isn't the point. The NYT must assure its antsy readers that every silver cloud associated with Trump must have a dark lining.

My little attempt at trash talk aside, I'm almost out of words to describe the deadly efficacy of the U.S./IAF air campaign. There's never been anything like it, because there was previously never anything like it remotely possible. The unparalleled human and signal intelligence that we discussed two weeks ago, combined with real-time data collection/analysis and near-instantaneous response time, has made real — at least this once — the air power's century-old promise.

In January, American forces whisked away a country's leader from the heart of his own capital, protected by Chinese and Russian stealth-defeating radar — likely operated by Chinese (and possibly Russian) "technicians."

In March, U.S./Israeli airpower is busy reducing one of the few remaining members of the Axis of Resistance — and the cornerstone of Beijing's Middle East policy — in an operation that goes immeasurably beyond the AirLand Battle doctrine unleashed on Iraq in 1991, or the improved Shock & Awe of 2003.

Here's where I truly have run out of words. There's no way to say what comes next, because nothing like this I know of has ever happened before, or ever been possible before.

Stay tuned. More to come. I wish I knew what it was.

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