Every election cycle, a narrative forms, and this year, that narrative is that a Democratic wave is coming and that they’ll succeed in flipping the House and possibly the Senate as well. In fairness, history favors it. Most polls favor it. Even the prediction markets haven't been particularly kind to Republicans. But something is happening right now that doesn't fit that story, and I think it adds to the growing pile of evidence suggesting Republicans will defy history and hold both chambers in the elections.
I'll be honest — I've been more bullish than most on Republican chances of holding the House majority this November. That's not a popular position when conventional wisdom holds that the president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm. But I'm not trying to give you false hope or just tell you what you want to hear. I'm just looking at the data and seeing a lot of variables working against the Democrats.
The latest data point comes from Oregon, of all places.
A new poll commissioned by Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley's campaign shows him leading Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek 48% to 44% in a hypothetical general-election matchup. The survey, conducted by the Hoffman Research Group between May 11 and 12, polled 603 likely general-election voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. That's close enough to caveat, sure — but a Republican leading in Oregon is not the kind of number you see when a blue wave is building.
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It is worth noting that Dudley isn't your typical first-time candidate. He spent 16 seasons in the NBA, including six with the Portland Trail Blazers, which gives him enormous name recognition in that state. After retiring from basketball in 2003, he co-founded Filigree Wealth Advisors and later served as chairman and CEO of Diabetomics. He also founded the Chris Dudley Foundation and served as treasurer of the National Basketball Players Association. The résumé is strong. The profile is compelling. But if this were a wave election year, none of that would matter.
If the headwinds for Republicans were truly as fierce as the media insists, Dudley wouldn't be competitive under any circumstances, let alone sitting at 48% and leading a sitting governor.
And then there's this: the same poll tested a separate hypothetical matchup between Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan. The result? A 45-45 tie. That means two Republican candidates, in the blue state of Oregon, are polling within striking distance of the incumbent governor. That wouldn't be possible in a genuine blue wave environment, especially in a blue state like Oregon.
Anything can happen between now and November, but what this poll signals is that Democrats are not a lock to flip the House. Every district will have its own story, its own candidate, its own local factors. And in an environment where voters across the country — including in deep-blue Oregon — aren't exactly thrilled with Democratic leadership, Republicans have a genuine shot to defy history and hold the majority.
Democrats probably know this, which is why they're quietly panicking about losing the redistricting wars. When the map isn't drawn in your favor, and the mood of the electorate is sour, a wave needs to be enormous to overcome both. Right now, the data just doesn't show that wave forming.
