I’m a horrible judge of character. It’s my Achilles’ heel. Probably my worst character trait.
(And the one that’s gotten me in the most trouble.)
My problem is, I fall in love with pretty much everyone I meet. Whoever I’m talking to is amazing and super-interesting. I love everybody!
I’m basically a human-sized golden retriever.
My wife is well aware of my weakness. On more than one occasion, she’s rolled her eyes (and then, thankfully, her sleeves) after one of my “friends” did something screwy — and I’m left with the rubble.
I don't know why I’m this way. I guess I’d rather be burned by a fake friend than risk mistrusting a real one.
But it’s not a consequence-free mentality: I’ve worked on my own in PR for 13 years now, and the ONLY time I had a client fail to pay me was when I lowered my fees (and onboarding SOP) to help someone who I thought was a friend.
Trusting the wrong people will kill your career in politics, too. You’ve gotta be VERY careful with whom you associate. One false move could be your last.
This weekend, it kneecapped the career of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Col.):
The Hill: Trump Calls for GOP Challenger to Rep. Boebert as she Campaigns With Massie in Kentucky
President Trump threatened to pull his endorsement of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) on Saturday, as she campaigned with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) ahead of a tough reelection fight.
Trump railed against Boebert in a pair of back-to-back posts on Truth Social, calling her “weak-minded” and asking if there was “anyone interested” in challenging her in the GOP primary for Colorado’s 4th congressional district.
“Boebert is campaigning for the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman in the History of our Country, Thomas Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky, and anybody who can be that dumb deserves a good Primary fight!” Trump wrote in one post.
“Even though I long ago endorsed Boebert, if the right person came along, it would be my Honor to withdraw that Endorsement, and endorse a good and proper alternative,” he said.
Unfortunately, the filing deadline for Boebert’s seat was in March, and Boebert is running unopposed in the June 30 GOP primary. Barring a write-in candidate — or pushing Republican Party resources behind a third-party candidate in the general election who promises to caucus with the GOP — it’s unclear what Trump could do.
(I suspect he knew this and posted it anyway, because he wanted to exact a price for crossing him. Otherwise, the Lauren Boeberts and the Marjorie Taylor Greenes of the world would be emboldened.)
Betrayals happen all the time. Nobody is immune, no matter how wholesome or pure: Even Jesus was betrayed by a Judas.
After all, how well do we really know anyone? Even our closest friends and family — the people we think we know the best — almost always have shadows we’ve never seen.
Furthermore, people are constantly changing. Who someone was a decade ago isn’t who they are today. (Fun fact: The average age of the human cell is seven to ten years. Even on a molecular level, we’re not the same.)
In politics, few skills are more valuable than being a keen judge of character. Misjudging a “friend” in D.C. is like stumbling into quicksand: It’s a professional hazard of the game — and it’s YOUR responsibility to know where it’s safe to tread. Nobody cares if someone tricked you into trusting the wrong person!
You don’t get sympathy points just because you were fooled!
But in sports, the mystery of the unknown is part of the appeal. The audience knows that Father Time is undefeated — which is why it’s so exhilarating when legendary athletes rage, rage against the dying of the light.
They might not win the final fight, but come hell or high water, they’ll win the fight today!
Sometimes, a formerly great athlete has become a mirage: He looks and sounds like the same indestructible phenom of his youth, but something inside has changed. Could be something he can’t control, like his reflexes or injuries. Or it could be something psychological.
Like Marvelous Marvin Hagler once said, “It’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5:00 a.m. when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas.”
Late Saturday night, Netflix aired its first-ever MMA fight card. The main event featured two legends of the steel cage, Gina Carano and Ronda Rousey. In their primes, both ladies were exceptional fighters.
But that was long ago: Rousey is 39 and Carano is 44.
Last time Carano won an MMA fight, George W. Bush was president. Last time Rousey won an MMA fight, Barack Obama was president. Fans watched because of what these women used to be — and not for what they are today.
Still, the buildup and promotion was masterful. (Say whatever you want about Jake Paul, but he’s a PR genius.) Rousey was a nonstop soundbite, taking shots at her ex-employer, the UFC, and promising audiences a glimpse of the Rowdy Ronda Rousey of lore. Carano trained hard, lost over 100 pounds, and certainly looked the part of a battle-ready, take-no-prisoner, butt-whippin’ she-gladiator.
After all that buildup, the fight lasted a whopping 17 seconds:
My old economic teacher used to say that lottery tickets are a tax on people who don’t understand math. Personally, I disagree: When you buy a lottery ticket, you’re not just investing in the odds. That’s not the right way to look at it.
You’re also letting yourself daydream, for a day or two, about how awesome it’ll be if you win — and arguably, those dreams are worth a $1.
Sports fans are invested in the legends of yesteryear. We yearn for them to turn back the clock, throw dirt in the eye of Father Time, and regain their prime — because if they can do it, maybe we can, too.
And as citizens in a representative democratic republic, by design, we’re invested in our representatives. Our politicians represent our dreams, fears, interests, and values. We can’t vote for these bills ourselves; we need someone to do it for us.
Just be careful who you trust.
PRediction: The big prediction for this upcoming week is that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will lose his May 19 Republican primary.
It was noteworthy when the predictive markets shifted last week, for the very first time, against Massie’s chances. (Since then, the markets have swung back in favor of Massie. I’m guessing the markets will swing back and forth a few more times; there’s gonna be a lot of volatility.) Most of the polls now have Massie’s challenger, Ed Gallrein, either neck-and-neck or narrowly ahead.
For Massie, the timing of those ugly allegations about hush money, unethical behavior, and NDAs was awful. Couldn’t have come at a worse time — which is a fact worth noting when assessing the allegations’ credibility. But true or false, authentic or manufactured, it’s killing Massie’s brand identity as a transparent, nothing-to-hide, libertarian-leaning ideologue who’s so committed to his cause, not even the president could get him to budge.
Massie wins by being a man of principle. He loses by being seen as yet another selfish, hypocritical, grandstanding politician.
I’m not in his district, but it certainly seems like the momentum is with Gallrein. He’s peaking at just the right time.
PRojection: And a harbinger of Massie’s defeat could be Sen. Bill Cassidy's (R-La.) brutal, humiliating drubbing last night.
Fox News: Trump Scores Major Republican Primary Victory as Cassidy Ousted in Louisiana
Five and a half years ago after he voted to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial, GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was sent packing by Republican voters as he ran for re-election.
Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow and Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming topped Cassidy in Saturday's GOP primary, according to The Associated Press.
With most results tabulated late in the evening, Letlow stood at 45% of the vote, Fleming at roughly 28% and Cassidy at just under 25%. Since no candidate cracked 50% of the vote, Letlow and Fleming will advance to next month's runoff for the Republican nomination. And Cassidy becomes the first elected Republican senator to lose renomination since Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana in 2012. [emphasis added]
Ouch! That was even more of a massacre than the Rousey-Carano fight!
One of Trump’s biggest political legacies is nationalizing the Republican Party. Increasingly, voters see the Republicans they send to D.C. less as a state-level representatives and more as members of the GOP’s national team.
Trump is the leader, of course — and it’s the job of his teammates to help him win.
It’s an unromantic (and arguably unhealthy) view of representative democracy, but it’s firmly rooted in realism. This mentality, good or bad, will be with us for a very long time.
PRaise: To Gina Carano, for making over a million dollars for 17 seconds of work. (Great gig if you can get it!) She’s always been a classy ambassador for combat sports, and she gained plenty of conservative fans when she refused to back down to Disney.
So I’m glad she got her final moment in the spotlight (and a seven-figure payday). Not all athletes do.
Because of Netflix’s global distribution, Carano’s fight might be the most-watched MMA bout in history. That’s a helluva accomplishment!
But please don’t fight again.
PRedator: “The Predator” is actually the nickname of an ex-UFC fighter who was on Netflix’s undercard — the lineal heavyweight champion, Francis Ngannou. The dude is nearly 260 pounds of rock-solid muscle. His biceps have biceps.
On Saturday night, he fought a 220 pound man… and simply decapitated him. It was pure domination:
It beckons the old quote from Clint Eastwood movies: “A man’s got to know his limitations.”Which is excellent advice for politicians, too.
