The MAGA Effect on the Midterms

AP Photo/Michael Wyke

Hello once again: Welcome to Sunday, May 17, 2026. A busy day today. Today is Emergency Medical Services Day, National Walnut Day, National Creativity Day, National Play Your Ukulele Day, World Tuna Day, National Cherry Cobbler Day, National Mushroom Hunting Day, National Pack Rat Day, National Pinot Grigio Day, and Stepmother's Day.

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Today in History:

A LOT of firsts today.

1620 First merry-go-round is seen at a fair in Philippopolis in the Ottoman Empire

1733 Great Britain passes the Molasses Act, putting high tariffs on rum and molasses imported to the colonies from countries other than British possessions

1792 Twenty-four merchants form the New York Stock Exchange at 70 Wall Street

1803 John Hawkins and Richard French patent the reaping machine

1861 The first color photograph, of a tartan ribbon, is shown by Scottish scientist James Clerk Maxwell to the Royal Institution in London

1877 Edwin T. Holmes installs the first telephone switchboard burglar alarm

1881 Frederick Douglass is appointed recorder of deeds for the District of Columbia

1884 Alaska becomes a U.S. territory

1890 Comic Cuts, the first weekly comic paper, is published in London

1897 The first successful submarine that can run submerged for any considerable distance and combines electric and gasoline engines is launched in the USA by its designer, John Philip Holland

1915 National Baptist Convention chartered

1939 The Glenn Miller Orchestra begins a three-month engagement at the Glen Island Casino in New Rochelle, New York

1954 U.S. Supreme Court unanimously rules in Brown v. Topeka Board of Education, reversing the 1896 "separate but equal" Plessy v. Ferguson decision and ruling racial segregation in public schools illegal

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1993 Intel's new Pentium processor is unveiled


Birthdays Today Include: Bartholomew Roberts, AKA Black Bart, who raided over 470 prize ships off the Americas and West Africa between 1719–22; Edward Jenner, English physician and father of (Western) immunology who pioneered smallpox vaccinations; Erik Satie, French composer (Gymnopédies); Horace Elgin Dodge, American automobile manufacturing pioneer (co-founder of Dodge Brothers Company); Marshall Applewhite, American cult leader (Heaven's Gate); Dennis Hopper, actor and director (True Grit, Blue Velvet, Easy Rider); Taj Mahal, blues and world music singer-songwriter and guitarist ("Real Thing"); Keith [James Keefer], pop singer ("98.6"); Howard Ashman, playwright and lyricist (Little Shop of Horrors; The Little Mermaid); Bill Paxton, American actor (True Lies, Twister, Big Love); Bob Saget, comedian, actor (Full House), and TV host (America's Funniest Home Videos); Sugar Ray Leonard, boxer; Enya, singer and songwriter ("Orinoco Flow," "Caribbean Blue," "Only Time"); and Craig Ferguson, comedian, actor (The Drew Carey Show), writer, and television host (The Late Late Show, 2005–14).

If today is your day as well, have a great one!


 * * *

Yesterday, Louisiana Republicans ended Bill Cassidy's Senate career. Julia Letlow crushed the field with 45% of the vote, John Fleming grabbed second with 28.2%, and Cassidy limped home with a humiliating 25%. No one hit 50%, so Letlow and Fleming will fight it out in a June 27 runoff.

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None of this surprised anyone who has been paying attention. President Donald Trump endorsed Letlow, and that endorsement carried the weight of a well-deserved grudge. 

Conventional wisdom in pundit circles says Americans have no political memory. Yesterday's vote called that bluff. Louisiana Republicans waited five years, walked into the booth, and made Cassidy pay for every vote he cast against Trump. Cassidy voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, cheered on the certification of the 2020 results, and condemned January 6 — earning himself a censure from his own state party in the process. Louisiana Republicans remembered every bit of it. The kicker: Cassidy and his backers burned through a total of nearly $22 million trying to save him. Voters tossed him out anyway. They didn't forget. They didn't forgive. They settled the score.

Importantly, this tells us that the GOP base has fully consolidated around Trump — full stop. Cassidy carried a relatively conservative record in a GOP establishment measurement into this race, but the base long ago slapped the "Never Trump" label on him ( I think correctly), and that label is a death sentence in a Republican primary. Incumbency means nothing once that label sticks. Cassidy put that target on his own back, and Louisiana voters hit it dead center. This wasn't ideological — it was retributive. Bye bye, Bill. I can’t say I’m displeased.

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Then too, Louisiana is a deep red state, which means the Republican primary isn't a preliminary — it's the main event. The runoff now belongs to Letlow and Fleming, and barring an earthquake between now and June 27, Julia Letlow will be Louisiana's next senator. Write it down.

The signal to every Republican on the ballot this November couldn't be louder. Trump loyalty isn't optional — it's the price of admission. It is a requirement.

On the other hand, apostasy comes with a pre-printed pink slip, and Cassidy just got handed his. Every Republican who quietly broke with Trump — on Ukraine, on the debt ceiling, on anything — watched yesterday's results with their stomach in their throat. The chilling effect was already underway; Cassidy's humiliation just turned up the voltage.

Maine and New York are a couple of examples of states that operate with different math given their higher Democratic populations, but make no mistake — this primary measures the temperature of the Republican rank and file nationally. Ask Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, who crossed Trump repeatedly and, as a direct result, faces his own primary firing squad two days from now. He's already picking out his blindfold.
 
The polls indicate Massie is in serious trouble in the Bluegrass State. I'm quite sure Massie's own numbers people are seeing this, and likely more clearly than I do. Back in early April, he led comfortably. A Quantus Insights survey from April 6-7 showed Massie ahead 46.8% to 37.7%, and a Big Data Poll had him up 52.4% to 47.6%. 

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That's no longer true. The most recent numbers flip that picture entirely. A Quantus Insights poll conducted May 11-12 — just days before the primary — found challanger Ed Gallrein now leading there 48.3% to 43.1%, with 7.6% undecided. Among those undecided voters, over 52% leaned toward Gallrein. Interestingly, Gallrein has the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which as a rule does not tend to support MAGA candidates. That suggests crossover appeal. That's where that race will be won... among the independents, the undecideds.

In fairness, the race in the Bluegrass State is not just about Trump. Gallrein is a former Navy SEAL and Army Ranger who served 30 years in the military, deploying around the globe from Central America to the Middle East. He earned four Bronze Stars, the Combat Parachute Badge, and two Presidential Unit Citations. That's a serious combat record. He also holds multiple advanced degrees — agriculture and economics from Murray State, national security affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School, and strategic studies from the Air Force War College.  His pitch is pure America First. "This district is Trump Country. The president doesn't need obstacles in Congress — he needs backup," Gallrein said at his launch.

In short, Gallrein is not a lightweight candidate. My read at this point is that the race in Kentucky is Gallrein’s to lose. His campaign has been based, since day one, on Trump’s endorsement and Massie’s defiance of it. Ask John McCain about that “Maverick” label. It didn’t work for his presidential run, for example. The GOP base sat on their hands.

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primaries have what it takes to win a general electorate. The base will have its say in June; America as a whole, on November 3. The full answer won’t be clear until then.

Thought of the day: “When a Democrat says they don’t know what a woman is, they’re lying. I’ve been in the Senate for 14 years and I’ve never seen Joe Biden sniff Chuck Schumer’s hair.” — Senator Ted Cruz

As always, VIP members, hit that heart on the lower left, and let us hear your comments. And share this link.

Take care and enjoy the day. I’ll see you here tomorrow.


 

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