There are certainties life: death, taxes, and the ever-present risk of India and Pakistan going to war — and the latest spark could prove to be Tuesday's jihadi Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist attack that left at least 26 non-Muslims dead on the Indian side of the long-disputed Kashmir region.
Visegrád 24 reported today that New Delhi announced "strong measures against Pakistan," including cancelling South Asia-regional SAARC visas for Pakistani visitors, closing the Wagah border crossing, and suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) governing the allocation of water from the region's major rivers.
SAARC visa-holders will have to leave within 48 hours, but according to Visegrád 24, closing Wagah is more serious. "Pakistan will instead have to rely on costlier routes via third countries or ports, increasing import costs and inflation," the outlet reported. "The Lahore region will face immediate economic hardship, unemployment, and potential social unrest."
The first is an inconvenience, the kind of diplomatic tit-for-tat you'd expect after an attack like Tuesday's. The Wagah closure is a more serious measure, but won't bring immediate hardship, and it's easy enough to reopen as a de-escalation measure. But suspending the IWT, Islamabad has previously stated, "could amount to an act of war."
Water rights are a very big deal. When people turn on the sink or farmers switch on the irrigation system and nothing comes out, things get serious with all due haste.
India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, explained that the IWT is suspended “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.” Defense Minister Rajnath Singh warned, "We will not only reach those who have perpetrated this incident but also those who, sitting behind the scenes, have conspired to commit such acts on the soil of India."
In New Delhi's diplo-speak, "Sitting behind the scenes" means "plotting in Pakistan."
Pakistan has yet to announce what measures it will take in retaliation, but Islamabad said its defense and intelligence National Security Council will meet on Thursday.
The longtime rivals have fought four wars since partition and independence from the UK in 1947, three of them major. The last time hostilities elevated to more than skirmishes was 1999's Kargil War, when Pakistani soldiers and militants infiltrated Indian positions around Kargil in Kashmir. Both sides had nukes by then, and a general war did not break out.
The tempo of crises that almost led to war has increased since both countries went nuclear. The two have nearly come to blows at least six times since the 1986-87 Brasstacks Crisis. Pakistan had not yet conducted a nuclear weapons test but was widely believed to have the ability to quickly assemble and deploy several nuclear warheads.
"Jaw, jaw is better than war, war," Winston Churchill said in that accent of his that could make it rhyme. That's particularly true when both sides have nuclear arsenals.
Honestly, things on the subcontinent might have been better when the British Raj was around to keep a lid on things, but these days the Brits can't even do a decent job of governing themselves.
So I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that sanity prevails, even if it's because neither side is crazy enough to dismiss the other side's nukes.
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