Communist China celebrated party founder Mao Zedung's birth earlier this week by debuting new weapons systems meant to drive the United States out of the Pacific — platforms that are barely on our drawing boards.
First up, we have not one but two mysterious new stealth jets from Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC).
Crafty Chinese used time machine to steal new US planes pic.twitter.com/qcYWFjKrPx
— Tatiana Jennings (@TatianaJen99805) December 27, 2024
With their delta-like wings, both jets appear to be designed for large payloads and long ranges — exactly the features you'd need for conquering the Pacific. Interestingly, one closely resembles the proposed FB-22, a long-range supersonic bomber version of the F-22 stealth fighter. It was never built.
Being tailless is a very big deal. Tailless jets are much stealthier than their more traditional counterparts, but they're also less maneuverable. That's why heavy stealth bombers like the B-2 Spirit and B-21 Raider can get away with a tailless design but stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35 can't. The first country to produce a tailless stealth fighter (generally referred to as a "sixth-generation fighter") will enjoy huge advantages in combat.
The SAC and CAC jets may only be demonstrators but are impressive nonetheless.
The U.S. Air Force's first sixth-generation fighter is known as Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) because it's so early in the development process — which began in 2014 (!!!) — that NGAD still doesn't have a real name like "F-22 Raptor" or "F-40 Boondoggle."
NGAD is so far behind schedule and so far over budget that its entire future is in doubt. USAF/MIC have been at NGAD for a decade and they haven't produced a single jet.
It seems like just last year [Steve, it was just last year —Editor] I wrote Part I of "Yeah, We're Going to Lose World War III to China," and the trendlines on Presidentish Joe Biden's watch have only gotten worse in that brief timeframe.
F-22 production ended in 2011 and was capped at 187 combat-capable jets. China is believed to have manufactured over 300 roughly comparable Chengdu J-20 stealth fighters — and full-rate production continues. Yet China still found the talent, money, and innovation to design and fly two potential six-gen fighters while NGAD remains grounded.
UPDATE AND CORRECTION: An old friend who used to work on the F-22 program writes:
Only about 150 of the F-22 production run are combat-capable. The first 14 or so were test beds for Edwards and Nellis (and most if not all are retired by now I suspect), the next 27 were for the schoolhouse and AFAIK not upgraded past Block 20 (which was about 20 years ago). There have been 3 or so total-loss mishaps, although I think everything that was damaged when Michael wiped out Tyndall AFB eventually got back into service.
150-ish (I have no doubt the actual number is classified) is a best-case guess. I’d be shocked if all of the remaining jets could all be made fight-worthy at this point, some of them have almost certainly been retired or all-but retired as parts-store “hangar queens."
Ouch.
And Another Thing: Don't dismiss Chinese engineering. Mainland China went from producing cheap crap to producing excellent copies of Western stuff to producing innovative homegrown gear in very short order. China produces world-class engineers — we taught their engineering teachers, after all — and in huge numbers.
Also seen was China's new Y-20 AWACS plane, whose powerful radar, computing systems, and crew work together to shape the battlespace.
Next up is China's "drone carrier."
China launches first Ocean going drone ship. The Zhejiang H1-B. pic.twitter.com/dBNfjarn7J
— Dan Collins (@DanCollins2011) December 27, 2024
The People’s Liberation Army has launched the first of its next generation of amphibious assault ships, the Type 076, featuring an electromagnetic catapult which will be useful in a range of operations, including in a conflict with Taiwan.
The Chinese warship’s unique design – including its ability to carry fighter jets and drones and not just helicopters – will increase the speed of amphibious landing missions and the intensity of its strikes, according to analysts. Some also believe it is likely to become the world’s first “drone carrier”.
The U.S. Navy lost one of its precious amphibious assault ships — the USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6) — to a shipyard arsonist in 2021. Not only will the Navy not replace Bonhomme Richard, but it has no capacity to do so. Navy ships and subs face years of delays in routine maintenance because Congress has criminally neglected our shipyard capacity for decades.
When we somehow manage to lose a ship in peacetime, it's simply combat power we've lost forever. Meanwhile, China is producing new ships and new ship classes in numbers no navy has enjoyed since the U.S. during World War II.
The Navy's peacetime job is to deter aggression and keep the sea lanes safe for commerce. We're failing on both counts because our ships are too few, too old, and receive too little maintenance. Chinese strongman Xi Jinping has always been a cautious player. But as he looks at his growing fleets of warships and advanced warplanes, he must be more and more tempted to throw the dice.
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