"Don't get cocky," I keep reminding readers — one of the best lines from Star Wars that Glenn Reynolds turned into an election meme (before we called them memes) during George W. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign.
But some days it's really difficult to follow that sage advice. That's true even on a day like today when we're no longer certain who the Democratic nominee for President will end up being.
Were we ever that certain? I certainly was but times are certain to quickly change, too.
UPDATE: With this news, it looks like Biden is indeed being ousted.
There came a point about six weeks or so before Barack Obama's successful 2008 bid against John McCain (A plague a' both your houses!) when I was forced to warn my readers that the race was already over and that Obama had won it. There were, IIRC, seven swing states remaining, McCain would have to sweep six of them to win, and Obama was polling ahead in all seven. The Anointed One went on to win all seven, plus Indiana.
I'm not here to tell you today that the Fat Lady has sung and Donald Trump is 99.9% sure the next President of the United States. I am here to tell you that the Fat Lady is warming up backstage.
Here's the kicker. Reputable polls are conducted over a series of days, and so the polls we're seeing this week have yet to fully reflect either Trump's Fist-Pump Bounce (I just coined that; you're welcome) or his convention bounce.
I don't believe convention bounces mean what they used to, but I can't help but believe that Trump's blood-covered defiance on Saturday will move voters — particularly compared to Biden's slow-witted speeches and his slow-motion shuffle.
With all the background and caveats out of the way, let's get to our base map. For the first time since I started the 2024 Wargaming series, the base map has seen significant changes.
Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia have all become potential battlegrounds, as has Nebraska's 2nd district that sometimes goes Blue under the state's winner-takes-most election law.
I'd like to give a hat tip to the Longtime Sharp VodkaPundit Reader™ who pointed out a couple of months ago that New Hampshire was no longer safe for Biden... but, I'm sorry, I can't remember who it was. Please take the credit due to you in the comments. But it wasn't until this week that I included New Hampshire in the battlegrounds because the polling didn't yet support my Unknown Reader's intuition.
What we see on today's base map is that Biden-Harris is in the same position that the McCain-Palin ticket was in back in 2008. They have to sweep every swing state except for Nebraska's 2nd district, or they're toast.
I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the numbers and had to double- and triple-check my map for errors.
There are two important differences between today and 2008, however.
The first is that Trump has amassed this lead in July and, as always, a lot can change between now and Election Day. Obama wasn't this far ahead in '08 until early October when there was less time for the GOP to catch up.
The second is the question mark over Biden remaining the nominee. Things can and might change in a hurry, so stay tuned.
But do enjoy the sound of the Fat Lady warming up. She has a lovely voice.
P.S. Thank you so much for your continued support as a VIP or VIP Gold member — and don't miss Stephen Kruiser, special guest Larry O'Connor, and Yours Truly on Friday's Five O'Clock Somewhere. It promises to be a classic.
