Donald Trump is going to win reelection.
There, I said it.
If all you read is the headline poll numbers, you could be mistaken for believing that Joe Biden has insurmountable leads in all the traditional Blue states, has a lock on most swing states, and is so popular around the world that other countries are petitioning for statehood just so they can vote for Good Old Joe.
Well, that last part is kinda-sorta true, if we’re talking about Communist China and Russian/Ukrainian oligarchs. But that’s another story, and one I’m sure you already know far too well.
Just so we’re clear, here it is one more time: Donald Trump is going to win.
“Have you been day-drinking again?” is a question I get all the time.
The question I might get after this column is, “Are you day-drinking the Kool-Aid?”
But almost every indicator other than the big polls says the same thing: Donald Trump is going to win.
Let’s take just a couple of minutes together to look past the headlines, to the stories that really count — and that the Democrat-Media Complex largely ignores.
They ignore these things in order to suppress the vote, to dispirit Trump voters.
Don’t let them.
Instead, take a look at the hard news that lies far, far below the headlines.
Last week, Jonathan Garber reported on a JP Morgan analysis that showed “voter-registration patterns give Trump an edge invisible to polls.”
In Pennsylvania, for example, a blue-leaning state that Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016, the Republican Party has since picked up nearly 200,000 voters.
JPMorgan says the gains suggest Trump could win the state by a margin of more than 240,000 in the upcoming election.
Similar progress in battlegrounds Florida and North Carolina suggest Trump may take those states by a larger margin than in his first campaign as well.
In Florida, the GOP has reduced the “voter registration gap with Democrats to a historic low.”
Republicans now trail Democrats by just 134,242 registered voters, down from 327,483 in 2016.
Four years ago, President Trump won the Sunshine State by fewer than 113,000 votes.
The gain is purportedly the result of the Trump campaign’s in-person canvassing and voter registration operation. The campaign went door-to-door in Florida despite health restrictions and the threat of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Trump campaign has worked incredibly hard at voter registration, particularly in battleground states like Florida.
A big part of that effort has involved person-to-person contact — Wuhan virus be damned! — as you’ll see in this next item.
The Human Touch
Trump volunteers have been knocking on one million doors each week, every week, going back to the beginning of August.
Meanwhile, up until the last two weeks, Biden’s ground game was literally nonexistent.
As in, there wasn’t one.
The personal touch matters, although perhaps the Biden campaign can be forgiven if they worried that voters would find Biden’s touch to be gross and icky.
The fact the Trump voters are willing to do the hard campaign work of walking entire neighborhoods just to talk to fellow voters explains a big part of our next item.
The Enthusiasm Gap
Nevada is fired up for @realDonaldTrump!
✅ 15,038 signups for Carson City rally
✅ 18.4% not Republican
✅ 30.0% did not vote in 2016
Thank you for the support!
— Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) October 18, 2020
Is that enough to flip Nevada?
Maybe, maybe not.
But it’s certainly enough to worry the Democrats and perhaps force Biden to put out more effort in the Silver State.
Meanwhile, Biden has called a lid until Friday following Thursday night’s presidential debate.
Fifteen days left, and Slow Joe is taking off four of them from campaigning.
Maybe he and his campaign are thinking: Why bother?
A Biden rally consists of Joe reading haltingly off a prompter to a handful (if that many) of socially distanced “fans.”
A Trump rally goes on for an hour or more, as POTUS wings it in front of adoring crowds of thousands. And as you saw above, the crowds include plenty of crossover Democrats.
Those — like yours truly, mea culpa — who dismissed the indictive power of Trump’s rallies in 2016, do so again in 2020 at their own peril.
Everything I’m hearing from states like Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington is that the ongoing riots are driving rural Democrats right into Republican arms.
Between that and the enthusiasm gap, don’t be surprised if Trump wins Minnesota — and Oregon is too close for Democrat comfort.
The Polls Are BS
A follow up to our previous tweet about Gallup's Party Affiliation findings:
Now it is R+1 (28R to 27D)
This time in 2016 it was D+5 (R27 to D32)
In 2012 it was D+4https://t.co/dMyvBy5VS9
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 19, 2020
Remember that poll showing Biden getting a yuge 14-point advantage following the first presidential debate?
It was based on a D+9 sample.
In reality, the voting public appears to lean R+1 this year.
If accurate, that’s a total wipeout for Biden.
The Hunter Biden scandal has legs, and Rudy Giuliani and the GOP have been slow-rolling the release of damaging info just the way the late, great Andrew Breitbart taught us.
When Biden can be bothered to campaign, he’s just not that into it.
Maybe it’s age. Maybe he knows he’s going to lose. Maybe he’s overconfident.
But in terms of energy generated, Biden can’t even match the standard set by Hillary Clinton four years ago, and we all know how that turned out for her.
The Inevitable Caveat
Maybe I’m wrong about all this.
Maybe the rallies don’t mean what they did in 2016.
Maybe people no longer care for the human touch.
Maybe R+1 is just another fake poll.
Maybe voter registration won’t lead to improved turnout.
Maybe rural Democrats will vote for Joe, just because they like watching cities burn.
Maybe Americans finally really did get sick of all that winning.
But that’s an awful lot of maybes, isn’t it?
So chins up, buckaroos: Donald Trump is going to win.