The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for President Trump in the upper 270s to low 280s in the Electoral College, but the CEO highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans.
In a lengthy interview on National Review’s “The Editors” podcast, Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly told NR’s Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump will win the battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will “probably win” in Arizona.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #FL #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Oct 11-13 shows Trump maintaining a lead with:
2.1% all others,
1.6% Und. See Report: https://t.co/i180v5TQHj pic.twitter.com/QOyL3gIxJP
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 14, 2020
In Michigan, where senatorial candidate John James has a slight lead, Cahaly says that a combination of James’s strength, hatred for Governor Whitmer’s COVID response and her job-killing Green New Deal, and the Trump economy will propel the president to a win there.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead:
2.2% all others,
2.2% Und. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpx pic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020
A huge red flag is over Pennsylvania, where Cahaly predicts a Trump win, but he said the state is ripe for voter fraud.
I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids. I think it’s the state he’s most likely to win and not get the votes from.
Over at Hot Air, Allahpundit nutshells why Trafalgar enjoys the respect it’s gotten.
They’re the firm that called Trump’s wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago when nearly every other pollster was predicting Clinton victories, some by blowout margins. (Trafalgar was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan in any survey taken that year.)
The IBD/TIPP poll of 2016 also predicted a Trump win.
The Trafalgar CEO says conservative voters are less likely, by a five-to-one margin, to participate in polls than progressives – worse than even in 2016. He said that reluctance by conservatives to take polls has moved from four conservatives for every progressive to 5:1 in just the past few weeks. People who hate Trump are glad to tell that to anyone, especially a pollster. That’s why he believes so many of the other polls showing a clear Biden win are wrong.
Conservatives, he said, are reluctant to admit voting for Trump because they don’t trust pollsters to keep their identities secret. Conservatives are concerned about social blowback, such as losing their jobs or worse.
Cahaly also said that the built-in “social desirability bias” – telling pollsters the politically correct answer – is at work as usual but he believes it may be responsible for as many as a five- to eight-point difference in the actual polling numbers. That’s a huge gap that many pollsters, he claims, don’t attempt to mitigate in their sampling. He said his short polls, taken by text, email, phone, and by other digital means, take into consideration such questions (that other pollsters have stolen) as “who is your neighbor voting for” and “do you own a hunting or fishing license”?
Besides Pennsylvania voter fraud, Cahaly warned that Republicans have an Achilles heel that they need to fix. He said they don’t appear to have a plan for health care. It’s why, instead of attacking Amy Coney Barrett for her religious beliefs during the Senate confirmation hearings for the U.S. Supreme Court, Democrats harped on ObamaCare. He said if voters think their kid won’t get their asthma medicine by voting for Trump, they’ll vote for their kid. Yes, we know that, to the extent they have a plan, Trump and the Republicans have vowed to include coverage for preexisting conditions and drugs in their plan, but the perception is that they don’t have a plan.
Cahaly says this is not a “persuasion election, it’s a motivational election.”
If you want motivation, look no further than the Trump rally in Georgia on Saturday night.
Screw the polls. Donald Trump is a rock star and Joe Biden can’t get out of his basement. Hiding with Hunter probably… pic.twitter.com/5oV3IxD2bI
— James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) October 18, 2020
But it only counts if you vote.