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Wargaming the Electoral College

RealClearPolitics Battlegrounds for October 21, 2016. RealClearPolitics Battlegrounds for October 21, 2016.

This week's battlegrounds haven't changed much from last week's, when the totals were Clinton 259 - Trump 164. Same story for the No Tossups map. Clinton and Trump swapped places in Ohio and Arizona, putting Trump over 200 for the first time -- and this would make him the first Republican since Richard Nixon in 1960 to win Ohio but lose the election.

ASIDE: Even Andrea Mitchell admits that the '60 race was "obviously" stolen by Jack Kennedy with a big assist by LBJ. But that's a topic for another column.

So that's the conventional wisdom, backed up by countless state polls of likely voters, dutifully averaged by the awesome folks at RealClear.

Today though we have a trio of polls showing Trump in the lead.