The Return of Robust Growth?

I’m not holding my breath, but I hope these guys are right:

The U.S. economy will expand at a robust 3.5% annual rate in the second quarter and continue at a solid pace the rest of the year, according to a survey of business economists released Monday.

The National Assn. for Business Economics revised up its forecast from March, when it projected the economy would grow at a 2.8% annual rate in the second quarter.

The group also boosted its outlook for the second half of the year.


I just don’t see how we get to 3.5% this quarter. April was a bust, with a slight decline in the consumer spending which makes up 70% of the economy. Assuming then an essentially flat first third of the second quarter, that leaves it up to May and June to grow at about a 4.5% annual rate. Who sees that kind of big growth in May, following Friday’s so-so jobs report?

This bears repeating: I don’t want a crappy economy in order to push my political agenda — I’m not a Democrat. If we can get real, sustained growth under our current political conditions, all I have to say to that is we’ve had too many people out of work for too damn long.

But given everything I write on every single day, I have to wonder what the folks at the National Assn. for Business Economics are smoking.

Still, in this case it wouldn’t suck to be wrong.

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