Or maybe I should have headlined this one with “Question of the Day.” Either way, it’s a whopper from Tom Dougherty:
Can Dems Bear Obama’s Weight in 2014 Elections
On the surface, it would seem things on the economic front are moving in positive directions and, while still plagued by security issues and other back-end problems, even the ObamaCare rollout has provided a little “spinnable” data for the administration.
Yet in spite of these events the approval rating for the President remains near historic lows.
The current Real Clear Politics average is a negative 9.3%, including an outlier from Rasmussen Reports that’s at plus 1% which if removed bumps the president’s number over minus 11%. Recently it seems no amount of news can drag Obama’s numbers back up and that could create a considerable burden for the Democrats in the upcoming mid-terms.
Asche Schow provides another helpful reminder.
Obama 2013 approval almost equal to GW Bush's in 2005: http://t.co/b7UxBmo5dE
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) January 21, 2014
You can see her full writeup here.
Note that Wiggleroom is almost as popular as Bush was, post-Katrina and pre-Surge. And unlike Katrina, ♡bamaCare!!! is a disaster which continues to unfold. Wiggleroom continues to enjoy a friendly media and that isn’t likely to change, giving him a 6PM News tailwind every evening. Bush wasn’t so lucky.
But that’s where the comparisons to 2006 must end. The Democrats had to capture a bunch of seats to take back the House and Senate, and had a frustrated electorate willing to take a chance on them. Now we have a split Capitol, with the GOP needing only to capture a half-dozen seats. The Democrats may make some small gains in the House, but only because the party is likely already testing its natural floor of support there. If the Democrats were playing Congressional Limbo, “How low can you go?” isn’t likely much lower than their current caucus size.
The tricky thing to factor might be Wiggleroom himself. In 2010 he proved inept at mid-cycle campaigning. When Teh Won himself isn’t the focus, he isn’t nearly as effective — and that’s when his approval rating was quite a bit higher.
In November, capturing the Senate and keeping the House will likely hinge on four things. The first is ♡bamaCare!!! and if it is seen to be working positively for Americans, or at least well enough to blunt the current anger and frustration. The other three I’ll list for you:
My suggestion to GOP primary voters is choose… wisely.