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VodkaPundit

Catch the Wave

December 4th, 2013 - 10:01 am

TSUNAMI

The big talk is just how many seats will the GOP pick up in the Senate next year, and we’ve spent a lot of time right here talking about just that. But how about the House? We do still have a bicameral legislature, even if it is becoming increasingly difficult to tell them apart.

The House is in the strange place where although it’s almost universally reviled, not much is going to change. Yes, gerrymandering is a part of that, but it isn’t the whole story.

People are fed up with Congress generally, but with ObamaCare specifically and increasingly. To punish the Democrats for ObamaCare would mean voting in more Republicans, and the out-of-the-White-House party does tend to make big gains during an incumbent President’s sixth year.

But the Democrats are already probably pretty close to their floor number of House seats. Is some Republican going to unseat Nancy Pelosi? How many blue Massachusetts districts could possibly swing? I haven’t yet gone to the map to look district by district, but it’s hard to picture the Democrat caucus ever getting very much smaller than it already is. 180 might be a hard floor for them.

My buddy Tom Dougherty has been running those numbers, too:

TD1247

Is that bad news for Republicans? In one sense, maybe. Since there’s not much chance of them picking up the 20 or more seats history says they should, it will be easy for the Democrat/News Industry Complex to paint anything less as a “loss.”

In another sense, maybe not. If Frustrated Voter Sally is unable to vent her frustration at her safe Democrat Congressman, she could choose vent her frustration at her Democrat Senator. The safety of House Democrats might make Senate Democrats even more vulnerable than they already are.

Comments are closed.

Top Rated Comments   
I wouldn't take out the party hats just yet.

The republican base delivered the House of Representatives to the party in 2010. The base has been repaid with no serious pushback on Obamacare, indeed they have been lied to repeatedly about the actual weapons at the House's disposal to derail or limit this monstrosity. Now Boehner prepares the fatal shiv to the base's gut with amnesty.

Meanwhile the vast majority of Senate republicans remain silent on Obamacare, the minority leader in virtual hiding, while excoriating colleagues who have the temerity to speak.

Mr. Green, the issue is not the number of democrats who might vote republican next year (that number will be statistically insignificant) but rather the number of republicans who will stay home.

The three or four million republicans who sat out the 2012 presidential/congressional elections was just the beginning. The republican party snake oil no longer sells and an increasing percentage of the republican base, while realizing there is no place else to go, refuse to participate in the charade any longer.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
I don't believe in hard floors in politics, I just saw a Democrat in a heavily Democrat district of Colorado (Hudak), resign rather than face the voters in a recall based on gun control. It doesn't matter if the voters have been voting for Democrats, if Obamacare and Obama become as toxic as I think they will, we could see another historic 2010 60+ seats change hands. If every Republican runs against Obama, Obamacare, Gun Control, illegal alliens stealing American Jobs, Foreign weakness, etc... and makes the Democrats own the economy, we will win BIG.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
I would add to your calculations this:

If the Republican nominated candidate is Conservative or TEA Party, the Republican Party will have opposed him/her all through the nomination process, will not support him/her in the general, and may run candidates as third party to deliberately split the vote and give the victory to the Democrat. Y'all are also in Colorado, and have seen all of these.

The Institutionals have been openly declaring war on Conservatives and the TEA Party. They may win at the primary level. How they plan to win in the general is not something that they have thought through.

And we also have to factor in what will happen if Boehner pushes Amnesty and permanent open borders through, as he gives every sign of wanting to do as soon as candidate filing deadlines are past. Hard to gain or hold a majority if your party can hold a national convention in a restroom stall.

Subotai Bahadur
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
All Comments   (35)
All Comments   (35)
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What do you all have in common with the political system you are analyzing ?

You expect the system to continue. It will not. Sooner rather than later,
some triggering event, perhaps the failure of Obamacare, will cause an
economic collapse, the money which buys the votes will stop flowing
and all Hell will be out for noon.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
Sadly, the republican establishment is going full throttle to undermine anyone associated with the TEA Party....even if it means a neo-communist victory. Because many entrenched, establishment republicans are getting wealthy due to their positions at the government trough, many are willing to help a neo-communist if it means their own safety is assured. Do not underestimate the ability of the republicans to screw this up - that's why we need a true conservative, AGGRESSIVE LEADER who is willing to take on the media and the establishment....does such a person exist?

Remember BENGHAZI!
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
Since Mr Green has brought up prognosticating I will give my 2 cents. My first horrible observation is that fewer of the conservative base came out in 2012 than did come out in 2008 - even though the Romney/Ryan ticket was stronger from a conservative point of view than the McCain/Palin ticket.

Note in neither case am I talking about winning. I am talking about who comes out to vote, in what numbers and why.

Now for polls. With the exception of some rigged polls, most good, serious and professional pollsters can predict the outcome of an election within the poll's margin of error almost all the time.

And this is because the number of people who turn out to vote in elections is fairly constant - within a State, for specific election cycles. For example, generally in Presidential Elections about 55% of registered voters actually vote. The number is much less for Senate or House only elections, and mayors and local legislature elections, including most governorships.

For example, here in NYC Blasio won with 72% of the votes but out of four million two hundred thousand voters, slightly more than one million voted. Blasio actually got 8% of the voters' votes.

Now we come to the main point. When turnout in an election deviates in a major way from the normal turnout, polls invariable fail to predict the outcome.

During Reagan/Carter while it is true that in the last two weeks polls showed Reagan pulling ahead, they had him in a 3 to 5 point lead over Carter. He won with a 15 point lead.

The issue is turnout then. If the turnout in 2014 is very large the overage coming out will break for Republicans. If turnout is low the status quo with some upsets will take place.

51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
If we do things the same old way, we will get the same old results. Only if Tea Partiers choose a candidate and get their butts out there to get them elected, will we see a huge swing. The circumstances are ripe to deliver a beating, but the circumstances alone do not win elections.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
Mr, Greene, aka Vodka Pundit,

I'd say you're missing two things: Firstly I believe personally that Obamacare will be MUCH worse (not to mention all the other things that President Obama will do between now and election day 2014 to piss people off..). So the effects of Obamacare will hit everywhere RED and BLUE districts. I believe that the Democrats really will be "not able to run (hardly) anywhere" except the bluest-of-blue districts. The Republicans just may pick up 20 or more House seats in this scenario..

Secondly not only will constituents be able to vent their frustration on their Congressmen and Senators, but more than probably they will also kick out quite a few surprised state House and Senate seats as well as it may effect governor races (just look at what ~almost~ happened with Cuccinelli in Virginia)!

I do believe your test has some validity and with that said my current congressmen per your test is "toast": Mr. McIntyre of North Carolina 7th Congressional District (I'll be working to make it so..), and let's hope we can get rid of Senator Hagan and replace her with some kind of Constitutional Conservative like Dr. Greg Brannon as well..!
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
Elections are won by getting independents' votes. About 14% of the electorate tends libertarian. And then you have the 58% supporting the repeal of pot prohibition - Colorado anyone?

The GOP hates libertarians and anti-prohibitionists.

What would I do if I was a Democrat strategist? Run on an anti-prohibition platform. Look for signs of this come June 2014. There are Democrat strategists already planning this. If they get the Party to go along...

http://atlasproject.net/daily-blog/marijuana-ballot-measures-and-youth-turnout/
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
I wouldn't take out the party hats just yet.

The republican base delivered the House of Representatives to the party in 2010. The base has been repaid with no serious pushback on Obamacare, indeed they have been lied to repeatedly about the actual weapons at the House's disposal to derail or limit this monstrosity. Now Boehner prepares the fatal shiv to the base's gut with amnesty.

Meanwhile the vast majority of Senate republicans remain silent on Obamacare, the minority leader in virtual hiding, while excoriating colleagues who have the temerity to speak.

Mr. Green, the issue is not the number of democrats who might vote republican next year (that number will be statistically insignificant) but rather the number of republicans who will stay home.

The three or four million republicans who sat out the 2012 presidential/congressional elections was just the beginning. The republican party snake oil no longer sells and an increasing percentage of the republican base, while realizing there is no place else to go, refuse to participate in the charade any longer.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
*Stay At Homes*
The stay at homes and the protest/Perot voters got us a re-elected crybaby, total incompetent and earlier the bubbazipper and thus, the hildabeast lurking for 2016. NRSC abandoned Angle, and further inflicted reidtard on America. NRSC is now sabotaging Tom Cotton in AR. NRC is grooming an Eastern fat guy for 2016. If you want your moment of expression of resentment or disgust express it in a Comment or actual work and support for patriotic and conservative candidates who can win. If you choose to throw away your vote, are you effectively voting for someone whose party will steal and pad plenty of votes in your districts?
Yes, an utterly, openly unqualified, immediately suspect, later proven dangerous _______ (any of the too numerous apt choices) was actually nominated, elected, and OMG RE-elected. Is fractionating the details of how he became the untrustworthy, disconnected hater of any further value for starting changes for the better??? If you are entrapped in CA or NY, any hard-core blue, support someone elsewhere who can win.
.............
If you spend 20 minutes reading articles like this or writing comments, could you consider sending some $$ to reasonable candidates for the Senate & House, please? A reasonable and accomplishable way to start reining in the reign of ______ (again any choices are apt) is a better led, braver, smarter, more ethical, truly cherishing and patriotic U.S. in 11 months. "Money where mouth" or "heart where treasure" both apply. Yes, it is all an intertwined mess. Cripes, FL state pubs gerrymandered West out and Grayson back in. Lastly, what would we writing about now if Romney had been elected. I won't speculate, but I will say that it would be less dangerous, stupid, and not include the severity and risk we now face.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
WHAT serious pushbacks? They don't have the votes to repeal it. Won't happen. Pulling silly stunts like the one Ted Cruz pulled.

Our esteemed host has it correct: Let. It. Burn. Kick back and let the wholly-owned Democratic Party ACA turn into the train wreck it is.

As for those shleps who sat out 2012, THANKS. You're the dimbulbs who guaranteed an Obama re-election.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
In fact, the House has voted to repeal 39 times. And 2010 was no "base" election, it was a wave of independents/swing voters joining in reaction to bailouts/spending/deficits/O-Care as the original Tea Party (before the name was hijacked by private individuals with their own agendas, never voted upon by any real Tea Party meeting).

Those who choose to sit out can go away or start their own party. They should have learned by now they are NOT a majority in the GOP or else they would have nominated people they approved more of - look at every single nominee from 1988-2010, not a single one from the "Movement Conservatives" - instead of being relegated to whining every single cycle.
50 weeks ago
50 weeks ago Link To Comment
I don't believe in hard floors in politics, I just saw a Democrat in a heavily Democrat district of Colorado (Hudak), resign rather than face the voters in a recall based on gun control. It doesn't matter if the voters have been voting for Democrats, if Obamacare and Obama become as toxic as I think they will, we could see another historic 2010 60+ seats change hands. If every Republican runs against Obama, Obamacare, Gun Control, illegal alliens stealing American Jobs, Foreign weakness, etc... and makes the Democrats own the economy, we will win BIG.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
TASSCLASS voters (those who get their news from the Propaganda Machine) will be given every slander, every lie, every puff piece...no stone will be unturned in keeping Senate seats.

That's a big hill to climb, even for solid contenders for the Republican seat.

In addition, the coverups of every misdeed with be coupled with daily "trip wire" attempts to get the Republican candidate to say something....anything...that can be used to destroy them.

The Financial Gestapo will be unleashed on anyone who is making a move toward winning an important seat...as will every one of his contributors, supporters and ANY critic of Obama's kingdom.

Whatever remaining piece of the Constitution is getting in the way...will be circumvented, shredded and stomped on...checks and balances removed, laws ignored, legislative rules abandoned.

So, it is going to take a monumental effort to override the rigged game and replace traitors with patriots.

The Republicans have shown an amazing ability to form a circular firing squad at the drop of a hat.

However....if the employer coverage program implodes and millions lose their healthcare coverage, their doctors, their hospitals ....election fraud, voting booth irregularities, keeping the military from voting...will be the tip of the iceberg in the dirty play that will come out of that election.

The Small C Communists will go for the coup d' grace. Book it.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
I have pretty much lost much respect of the Republican party to survive past the next surrender and of course, surrender they will rather than stand on principle. If the American people can be persuaded to vote for a President presiding over the worst economic recovery/lack of in generations and is clearly the most incompetent President in living memory, then they can also be counted on to be duped by your average smiling Democrat.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
Then get up off your rear end and do something about it, besides bitching on a blog. Most of the complainers do just that, and not much else.

Join the local party. Knock on doors, make phone calls, help raise funds. In short, become a useful member, and then maybe they'll start listening to you.
51 weeks ago
51 weeks ago Link To Comment
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