Tomorrow – er, today, as I’m writing this Tuesday night but you won’t read it until Wednesday – the Big Fear will be John Kerry’s seeming rebound in the polls. Specifically, in the latest Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll.
Take a deep breath and remember: I warned you just yesterday this would happen.
Now then, let’s look at the numbers.
The big one is, of course, Florida. There, Zogby has Kerry up by half a point, with a 2.9-point margin of error. Zogby is also the only major pollster to color Florida with the blue crayon. Also keep in mind that Zogby’s last call in 2000 was a 2-point Gore advantage. Even Democratic partisan (and unusually fair-minded pollster) Larry Sabato still has Florida in the Bush column.
A sure thing? Hardly. But nothing to get too excited about.
Pennsylvania is blue, but that’s no big deal. There are lots of scenarios where Bush could win without it, but hardly any where Kerry could.
Really, the only interesting thing Zogby has, is Arkansas going for Kerry. Could it happen? Sure. And AK’s six EC votes might even matter in a close race. Then remember that according to Zogby, Kerry leads there by one tenth of one percent, with a whopping 4.1% margin of error.
Now, you might fairly complain that I’m unfairly dissing Zogby. I’m just as happy to dis Gallup, Pew, and the rest