ABC News Says: "It's Kerry's to lose"

The man the Washington Post calls “king of election prognosticators,” predicts Bush will win 52.8% of the popular vote.

Since University of Buffalo professor James Campbell started doing this in 1992, he’s never been off by more than 2.3%. Do the math, and you’ll find Campbell’s method really gives Bush anywhere from 50.5-55.1%. Assume Nader pulls about 1% nationally (I don’t expect him to do much better, unless Kerry craters), and that leaves Kerry with 48.5-43.9%.