Wargaming the Electoral College

Using the latest polling data collated by Real Clear Politics and OpinionJournal‘s online calculator, here’s how the election looks today:

That’s tight.


Larry Sabato’s map remains unchanged since June. He calls only two states differently than I do, giving both Nevada and West Virginia to Kerry. Nevada’s a toss-up, and I had a hell of a time deciding which column to put it in. In the end, I figured the Republican organizational edge would make the difference there. But things have changed a lot in NV, and I could very well be wrong.

But if Sabato thinks West Virginia is going for Kerry, he’s come unhinged. The best polling information available is from Democrat-partisan John Zogby, who has Bush up by almost eight points.


Assuming everything else remains unchanged, giving Nevada to Kerry results in a 269-269 tie. If you thought Florida 2000 was bad. . .