Breitbart reports that, according to a new NBC/WSJ poll released yesterday, Jeb Bush is the current leader in the crowded field of Republican presidential candidates. According to the poll, Bush is supported by 22% of primary voters. Scott Walker is second with 17%, and Marco Rubio is third with 14%. Everybody else comes behind (this includes Ben Carson and Ted Cruz).
Although I saw many conservatives on Facebook explode at this news, I’m not worried at all. You see, Bush has only two strengths:
1. He’s a Bush. This is a strength because it means instant name recognition. Additionally, although the media pretend Americans don’t like dynasties, I couldn’t disagree more. They love ’em. Heck, they’re even obsessed with them.
2. He’ll probably have a boat load of money to spend in the primaries.
The first point will always be a major strength of Jeb’s, but with regards to number two, well, not so much. Firstly, money can’t buy you conservative credentials and, secondly, other Republicans have also proved themselves to be extremely well-funded. Rubio and Walker are raising a lot of money, and the same can be said for Ted, who impressed everybody — both foes and friends — when he released his fundraising totals of the first quarter of this year.
In other words, only the “Bush” part is truly an advantage Jeb has. That’s great for him, but conservatives shouldn’t worry: he’s got some serious weaknesses that his conservative rivals can and will exploit:
1. Voters don’t know Jeb, other than he’s a Bush.
2. The debates have yet to start. They’ll show Jeb for what he is: a progressive. Republican voters will run away from him en masse.
3. Jeb is a progressive Republican and has, because of it, very limited appeal. He may be able to get something like 25/27% of the GOP’s base. That’s his ceiling.
4. There are many conservative candidates who, at this moment, split the vote. During and after the debates, that’ll change: one or two will jump to the fore. They’ll close the gap with Jeb in no time.
5. The “ceiling” of those conservatives is much higher than Jeb’s.
In short, there’s no chance in hell that Jeb’s going to become the Republican Party’s nominee. He’ll give more conservative candidates a run for their money — sure — but that’s all.