This is a Gallup poll, and it follows yesterday’s Rasmussen that had the president down 5 to the Generic Republican. I generally factor in a +2 or 3 to the R’s in my mind when I look at a Rasmussen result. But Gallup? If anything, Gallup’s polls tend to hit the middle or lean a little left.
So, keeping that in mind, savor this one.
Registered voters by a significant margin now say they are more likely to vote for the “Republican Party’s candidate for president” than for President Barack Obama in the 2012 election, 47% to 39%. Preferences had been fairly evenly divided this year in this test of Obama’s re-election prospects.
And skipping their spiffy chart:
The latest results are based on a July 7-10 poll, and show that the Republican has an edge for the second consecutive month. Obama held a slight edge in May, when his approval rating increased after the death of Osama bin Laden. As his rating has come back down during the last two months, so has his standing on the presidential “generic ballot.”
Bonus: Read the first two words in the first quoted paragraph again. Registered voters.
And then check out this:
Independent registered voters are currently more likely to vote for the Republican candidate (44%) than for Obama (34%), though one in five do not have an opinion.
Obama does have major poll problems, obviously, and with the group that will be key to 2012. He does, however, also has an ace in the hole that worries me a bit. Well, two aces in the hole(s). He doesn’t have a primary opponent to worry about, so he is obviously socking away everything he’s raking in from these fundraisers he’s using our national corporate jet to fly to. But if there’s a debt ceiling crash/default, the GOP/RNC etc will be forced to go on the air with a massive ad campaign to pin the blame on him. He will have the media on his side, which won’t cost him or the DNC a dime (Big Labor will probably bankroll tons of ads to help out though). He can use the default to basically bleed the RNC’s cash out before we ever get to a primary, and if the narrative breaks his way, well, the RNC may have a hard time recovering from that in time for the election.
*About the front page photo: When I think of a “generic Republican,” I tend to think of Ike. That’s why he’s there.