We’re over two years into Obama’s presidency now, and the economy has been in decline pretty much the entire time. Yet month by month, economists keep getting surprised by it all.
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Declined again in June; Smaller than Expected Decline in Existing Home Prices in April
The Conference Board’s measure of U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell 3.2 points to 58.5 in June, the second straight downward surprise following the unexpected 4.3 point decrease to 61.7 (initially reported as 60.8) seen in the previous month and its lowest level since last November. Market expectations were for a 0.2 point increase in the index. The labour market differential (those saying jobs are “plentiful” minus respondents saying jobs are “hard to get”) deteriorated to -38.6 from the prior month’s -37.8 (previously reported as -38.3) while the outlook for employment for the next six months once again turned more pessimistic.
The unexpected deterioration in consumer confidence in June reflected declines in both the “present situation” and “expectations” components. Consumers’ appraisals of current conditions declined for the second straight month, with the index dropping to 37.6 from 39.3 in May.
Can’t economists even learn to expect the unexpected? I mean, I’m not even an economist and very little about Obama’s rolling economic mess has surprised me.
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