To analyze opinion polls, you need to think like Wayne Gretzky, the hockey legend (and American citizen): “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”
An opinion poll is a snapshot in time — a mile marker on a map. They’re vital for intelligence gathering, but nobody gets a trophy for “winning” an opinion poll in May of 2025. If you’re focusing on that, you’re focusing on the wrong thing.
Instead, look to where the puck is heading.
Political campaigns are marketing campaigns: You’re “selling” a package of ideas and/or a national ethos. Which means, it’s the GOP’s job to optimize its brand for November of 2026.
About 80% of the heavy lifting will be up to the individual candidates. Recruiting high-quality local candidates will be crucial; not everything can (or should) be nationalized. Local issues vary wildly via city, state, and region; the most competitive GOP nominee in Alabama is gonna be very different than the most competitive nominee in, say, California. Selecting market-specific candidates is essential.
That still leaves 20% of the PR up to the national party — and in a closely-divided House of Representatives, that 20% will be the difference in retaining control and drowning in a Big Blue Tidal Wave.
If historic standards hold, the Republican Party will be obliterated in the 2026 midterms, and don’t fool yourself into thinking otherwise. On average, the party in power loses 26 House seats.
In 2018, during Trump’s first midterm, the Democrats gained 40 House seats.
Today, the GOP only has 220 of the 435 seats in the House — a scant 50.057% majority. By historic standards, that won’t be anywhere close enough to stave off another Big Blue Tidal Wave. Just going by past trendlines, we’d expect the GOP’s House numbers to dwindle to roughly 200 members. (After the 2018 midterms, they were down to 197.)
Which means, of course, Trump’s final two years will be stymied by bogus investigations, his third (and probably fourth) House impeachment, and another ridiculous round of lawfare. So, enjoy the first two years of Trump’s second term, ‘cause it’s all downhill after that. Seems inevitable, right?
Or is it?
Here’s where we’ve gotta keep our eye on the puck’s trajectory:
Three new polls were released, and it just might drive the DNC to harakiri. The first one was highlighted in The Hill late yesterday evening: “Democrats fall behind GOP in popularity: Poll.”
Among its findings:
The survey results continue the negative trend seen in recent months’ polling data. The last time this question was asked of respondents, in late April, Republicans led Democrats on favorability by 8 points, with GOP net favorability holding at negative 11 percent and Democrats’ net favorability coming in at negative 19 percent.
The latest survey also asked respondents about the political parties in Congress. Republicans have a net favorability rating of negative 10 percent, while Democrats trail 14 points behind, with a net favorability score of negative 24 percent.
So, over the past month, the Democrats have gone from a negative 19% favorability to a negative 24% favorability. Instead of gaining ground and building momentum, they actually dropped five points!
American politics is a binary decision (sorry, Libertarian nerds). Either the GOP wins or the Democrats do. Right now, the GOP’s “success” is less about what we’re doing right and more about the Democratic Party’s complete and utter ineptitude: They’re not even showing up!
Trump is still Trump: Two steps forward, one step backwards. But the Dems seem hellbent on sprinting in reverse. It’s the darndest case of self-immolation in recent political history.
The second poll is courtesy of Rasmussen Reports. For the first time in its polling history, a majority of Americans believe the country is on the right track:
History made: 50% say America on the ‘right track’
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) May 27, 2025
“Holy crap – it happened! For the first time in our polling history A MAJORITY says the country is on the right track." @Rasmussen_Poll pollster @honestpollster
Also: DJT 52% approvehttps://t.co/xPHVJUBbWF via @dcexaminer pic.twitter.com/Zn3pVKD85a
The Democratic Party is purely an opposition party right now: They’re not “selling” new ideas or a new agenda to the public, but rabid opposition to all things Trump. If most of the country is happy about where we’re headed — especially in comparison to ex-President Biden’s dithering dementia — the appeal of rabid, anti-Trump opposition will be dramatically diminished.
For the Dems' strategy to work, a less-popular guy must win a popularity contest against a more-popular guy. Good luck with that.
The third poll is the scariest, most troubling omen for Democrats:
Newsweek: “Trump’s Approval Rating Soars Among Hispanics.”
The latest Civiqs/Daily Kos poll, conducted between May 17 and 20 among 1,018 registered voters, showed Trump's approval rating increasing by 15 points among Hispanic voters to 57 from 42 in April.
Meanwhile, his disapproval was down 13 points from April, with 43 percent disapproving in the latest poll, with a margin of error of ± 3.2 percentage points.
The most recent YouGov/Economist poll, conducted between May 16 and 19 among 1,710 adults, also showed a boost for Trump among Hispanic voters. Thirty-two percent said they approve of his job performance this month, up from 25 percent a month ago.
Two different polls — including one from the ultra-liberal Daily Kos! — and they both show Trump with double-digit gains with Hispanic voters. Clearly, something is going on here.
Hispanics are an enormous voting bloc, with 65+ million Americans, making up almost 20% of the total population. They now outnumber black Americans.
Folks, I don’t know if the Daily Kos poll is accurate, but if it is — and Trump is really, truly pulling in 57% of Hispanic voters — the Republican Party is not only positioned to buck historic trends in the 2026 midterms, but there’s an excellent chance they could even expand their majority.
The Democrats simply can’t win without large majorities of minority voters, and their anti-MAGA sales pitch falls flat if most Americans approve of the country’s direction.
As a result, the Dems keep falling farther and farther behind.
Related: The Dems Declare War on the Obama Boys
We’re still a very long way from Election Day 2026. A lot can change in a hurry. So I’m not telling you guys that victory is guaranteed and now’s the time to warm up the anointing oil. None of that is true.
Historical trends exist for a reason; future headwinds are likely.
But the current trajectory is all wrong for the Democrats. They’re still skating in the wrong direction — and as of right now, Trump’s beating the puck out of ‘em.
One Last Thing: The Democrats are on the ropes, but make no mistake: The donkeys are still dangerous. 2025 will either go down in history as the year we finally Made America Great Again — or the year it all slipped through our fingers. We need your help to succeed! As a VIP member, you’ll receive exclusive access to all our family of sites (PJ Media, Townhall, RedState, twitchy, Hot Air, Bearing Arms): More stories, more videos, more content, more fun, more conservatism, more EVERYTHING! And if you CLICK HERE and use the promo code FIGHT you’ll receive a Trumpian 60% discount!
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