Welcome back to "The New Monroe Doctrine," where I round up what's going on south of our border in Central and South America and the Caribbean, especially as it relates to the United States.
It's been a few months since I've done this. We'll call it a summer hiatus. This column usually takes a long time to write — and if I'm being honest, much more time than what I actually earn for it — so it's a passion project. Unfortunately, my summer has been a bit busy, so passion projects of all sorts had to be sidelined.
And while this is typically a pretty lengthy and comprehensive column, this will be a travel-size pre-Labor Day weekend version, if you will. There were two major stories from last week that I didn't get around to covering and really didn't want the week to end without doing so.
What Are We Going to Do with All These Communists?
"Communism is a mortal threat to American liberty. It's the greatest threat to our country." - Donald Trump
https://t.co/jZitTswApm pic.twitter.com/RAhhPOeHwa
— Department of State (@StateDept) September 4, 2026
While communism seems to be on the rise in the United States, I've spent the last year and a half documenting its fall in the rest of the Western Hemisphere (at least south of our border). As the story goes, over the last few years, Latin American and Caribbean countries have been voting more center-right than they did previously. Much of this was driven by cartels, violence, and organized crime. Illegal immigration, economics, an aversion to socialism in general, and being fed up with woke value systems also played a role.
Unfortunately, there remain some countries where people can't just vote themselves out of it. My hope is that by 2028, there won't be, or, at least, they'll be close.
Venezuela
Venezuela was one. Technically, it still is one, but Marco Rubio keeps assuring us that this will change in the not-too-distant future, and I'm trying my best to have faith in him. There is a lot that will need to happen before the country can hold elections — I'm not denying that — but there doesn't seem to be much momentum beyond rounds and rounds of talks.
I'm working on another article about that, so I don't want to get too deep into it, but Rubio did go out on a bit of a post-Venezuelan oil deal PR tour this week, doing interviews with Brian Kilmeade and Venezuelan journalist Sergio Novelli. We're still learning about the oil deal, but I can tell you there are many people from Caracas to Washington, D.C. who are hesitant about it. I even hear from some of you in my email that you're not really on board with it. I have mixed feelings myself. It has potential, but the execution is a bit off.
The biggest issue a lot of people have is that Delcy Rodríguez is still in the room. Let's not forget she was Nicolás Maduro's vice president and is a born and bred Marxist who vowed to dedicate her life to seeking revenge against the United States for the death of her communist activist father. She may be under Trump and Rubio's control at the moment, but she's also trying to buy time, hoping a Democrat will take office in 2028, so she can decide she's the legitimate president of Venezuela after all.
"Everyone here understands that it has to happen," Rubio told Novelli. "Because at the end of the day, Venezuela cannot get to where it needs to be without having a legitimate government, a government that complies with all international standards, that can receive the necessary recognition. Even investors are going to want to see that, they are going to want to know that the system that exists is the same."
Bottom line: We need to ensure Venezuela can hold elections in 2027.
Cuba
Next up is Cuba.
Cuba feels like it's on the brink, but it's felt like that since the spring. I think Iran sort of took up too much bandwidth, but we're still sanctioning the hell out of the regime. This week, Rubio announced that he is "designating five entities and one individual whose activities prop up the regime’s financial services, metals and mining, and energy sectors, and are part of networks that advance the regime’s threats to U.S. national security."
Among those sanctioned was Fidel Ernesto Castro Calis, grandson of Raúl Castro.
The same Raúl Castro who may or may not be on his deathbed, as I reported earlier this week. Some outlets say he had a stroke and was on a ventilator. Others say he's just in the hospital and is stable (or as stable as one can be at 95 years old). Havana, of course, confirms nothing and most likely won't until there's a funeral.
Despite the fact that he's the last surviving founder of "the revolution," Castro's death won't necessarily change anything, but it could lead to some internal power struggles between the military, the Communist Party, and members of the Castro family, which is interesting because some of the Castros seem willing to talk to the U.S. if you believe various rumors, while others... get sanctions.
"So I think the goal is that Cuba – the only solution and answer to Cuba – and we’re prepared to play a productive role in this – is to place itself on an irreversible path towards becoming a normal functioning state that eventually, of course, also is a democratic one as well," Rubio told Kilmeade this week.
Bottom Line: Despite what feels like endless sanctions lately, the regime lives high on the hog while people can't eat or have power for more than a few hours a day. Something must be forced if it doesn't crack soon. Not to mention that a free (or even changing) Cuba would be a huge win for whomever Trump's successor ends up being in 2028.
Nicaragua
Last but not least, we have the North Korea of the Western Hemisphere. Not only can its people not vote, but the regime doesn't even pretend they can anymore. On September 1, the Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo fake National Assembly passed the much-talked-about constitutional reform that declares that a "traitor to the homeland" can't run for political office. And by "traitor to the homeland," they mean anyone who isn't part of the regime and really, anyone who isn't part of their family. It will be ratified in January.
Rubio has rightfully called them out. He also told our regional partners to stop doing "business as usual" with Nicaragua. I know that at least one country, Costa Rica, in recent days has backed this up and promises to support any actions taken against the Nicaraguan regime at the upcoming Organization of American States (OAS) ministerial. I am confident most others will follow.
Yesterday the Murillo-Ortega's National Assembly gutted what was left of Nicaragua’s democracy in the second constitutional rewrite in two years. The U.S. will implement measures at the next @OAS_official Foreign Ministerial to ensure our hemisphere stops business as usual with…
— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) September 2, 2026
Bottom Line: The U.S. isn't going after this alone, which is good, and it seems as if most of our regional partners are on board. But the action taken from here on out must be decisive and can't simply be strongly worded statements. If the upcoming OAS ministerial regarding the situation is just a communiqué, the Sandinistas win.
A Few More Things
Here are a few more things you may have missed this week.
1. As I said above, Delcy is trying to buy time until 2028. The Maduro pictures that came out this week were a sign of that, a sort of dog whistle to calm Chavista die-hards: New Maduro Jail Pictures Just Dropped. The Timing Was No Accident.
2. I wrote about The Rise of the Mega-Prison in Latin America. I really find this trend fascinating and necessary to keep the entire region safe.
3. El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, is running for a third term. Keyword: running. Free and fair elections. And he'll likely win because he's the best thing that ever happened to that country and its people. But the U.S. media is having a meltdown over it, so I tried to add some context: Bukele's Third Term? El Salvador’s Gamble on Continuity Requires Some Important Context.
Well, that's it for me. As I always say, Rubio isn't handing me exclusives...yet, but who knows what next week will bring (assuming he hasn't read my somewhat negative Venezuelan oil tweets directed his way this week — oops).
Our dear Secretary of State is actually traveling to South America after Labor Day, and I can't wait to report on all that. I love it when he goes to Latin America. He'll be in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, and there are some big things happening in those countries right now.
Have a great weekend, y'all!
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