Raúl Castro turned 95 years old in June, so this isn't exactly a big news flash, but if rumors are true, he's not doing too well.
Various Miami-based Cuban exile media outlets have reported that a source inside his inner circle says he has had a stroke and is in the hospital in critical condition. Some are even reporting that he's intubated and that machines are keeping him alive.
Dr. Andy S. Gomez of Local 10 in Florida has also confirmed that Cuban sources tell him Castro is hospitalized, but he refused to say more or speculate about his condition. The Miami Herald said that sources inside Cuba say there is no public activity that would reflect the former dictator's impending death.
The regime, of course, has not confirmed or denied any of this. If you'll recall, there were a lot of false rumors leading up to his brother Fidel Castro's death in 2016, so this could very well end up being one of those situations.
Raúl has made some public appearances in recent months, though he's also skipped a few notable ones. When he does appear in public, he looks frail and unwell. His most recent appearance was on August 13 when he attended public events to celebrate Fidel's 100th birthday. He has reportedly had some health issues in recent years, like cancer, but again, the regime has never confirmed any of it.
On the outside, nothing would necessarily change when Raúl does die, but internally, there could be some shock to the structure that has held the regime together over the years. He's the one who built and supposedly still influences the Revolutionary Armed Forces and Grupo de Administración Empresarial S.A. (GAESA) — the two institutions that basically run the country — and he's the last surviving founder of the 1959 revolution.
His death could lead to some internal power struggles between the military, the Communist Party, and members of the Castro family, like his grandson Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, who have become more involved in recent years. We could even see younger members of the Castro family willing to make concessions to the United States. Never say never...
There are other potential outcomes, like increased discontent from the Cuban people who are already quite miserable due to the energy crisis and protesting nearly weekly, it seems. But I could see that also leading to increased repression, given the regime's need to prove that nothing has changed and maintain its image.
Symbolically, it's the end of an era, and it will test what the Castro brothers built that was supposed to outlast their deaths — something that's fairly fragile at the moment given how much pressure the Donald Trump administration has applied this year.
I know many Cuban exiles are unhappy that he will never see justice for the numerous crimes he committed. You may remember that earlier this year, the Department of Justice unsealed a superseding indictment, charging Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, two counts of destruction of aircraft, and four counts of murder for his role in the 1996 shoot-down of two Brothers to the Rescue planes. That resulted in the death of four men.
While it was highly unlikely that Castro, who defiantly dismissed the charges, was going to see jail time, I understand the disappointment. I'll keep you updated.
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