Roger L. Simon

Nostradamus II: And the Winners Are....

We now have three brilliant winners for our second Nostradamus Contest for predicting the results on Super Tuesday. They are… in order of accuracy… Janet Graham, Jim Shephard and Wayne Miller.

How did they do it? Let them speak for themselves:

First Place: Janet Graham
Lenovo IdeaPad tablet

I’m very excited about this. I haven’t won anything since I was a teenager. Our little piece of heaven is in the Pawnee National Grasslands. My husband and I are disabled and live on a fixed income in a small (115 people) prairie town. We only get cell service if we are at the market, which has a booster. We can sometimes get 5 over the air TV stations – and 2 of them are in Spanish. We had been without Internet, TV and home phone service for about 2 years and just got wired up this past December with funds from the American Legion. I have been enjoying reading a lot of the conservative blogs and newsletters I have found on the net. I found your site through another site I came across on Facebook. I liked PJ Media so much that I subscribe to it and read it daily.

I submitted my entry in your contest on a whim. I gave it my best guess from what I have learned from Internet sites (including yours) as well as the talking heads on Fox News and my own knowledge of how everyday people look at the GOP candidates.

I really enjoy all of your sites. The commentaries are informative and cover a wonderful range of issues and topics. The humor is tasteful yet pointed. The videos are a nice change of pace. I could spend hours soaking it all in and checking out all the links. I also like the newsfeeds on Facebook.

Second Place: Jim Shephard
iPod Touch

1) How did you hear about the Nostradamus contest?

My son, Eric, brought it to my attention. He is a regular PJTV viewer and brought your channel to my attention a couple of years ago.

2) Why did you enter the contest?

Pure whim after my son brought it up on my laptop and stuck it in my face.

3) How did you formulate your predictions? Did you look to political polls or a particulate website for guidance?

I guessed on all, except Tennessee. I checked polling numbers on it at several sites brought up by a search.

4) Anything else you’d like to add.

I enjoy PJTV and go to it about once a week.

Third Place: Wayne Miller
Kindle Fire

1) How did you hear about the Nostradamus contest?

I like to keep up with politics, and PJM is an excellent source. In fact, I participated in the previous Nostradamus contest. Though I missed the announcement of the Super Tuesday contest, my eldest son, who is also an avid reader of political news, alerted me and encouraged me to enter.

2) Why did you enter the contest?

Professional pollsters and pundits are notoriously bad at making predictions, and I wanted to see if a guy sitting at his computer in his pajamas could do a better job.

3) How did you formulate your predictions? Did you look to political polls or a particulate website for guidance?

I began with some of the more reputable polls, such as Rasmussen and the Suffolk poll, and I tried to see where the trend was going. In almost every major contest this season, the pollsters had underestimated the turnout for Mitt Romney, so I added two or three percentage points to Romney’s totals. I initially thought that Romney might do well in Oklahoma and Tennessee, but I figured that Evangelical voters would turn out for Santorum and give him the victory instead, a prediction which proved to be correct. Before submitting my predictions, I asked my youngest son for his input, and he helped me tweak the numbers until we were both satisfied.

4) Anything else you’d like to add.

I agree with the substance of Rick Moran’s editorial “Poor Mitt Can’t Get No Respect.” Despite all the attacks against Romney from both the left and the right, and despite Santorum’s boost in both Michigan and Ohio from Democrats who crossed over to sabotage Romney’s campaign, Mitt managed to salvage victory from the jaws of defeat. Mathematically speaking, and in light of the results from Super Tuesday, Romney is the only candidate with a reasonable shot at garnering 1144 delegates.

Not only do I predict that Romney will clinch the nomination, I also predict that he will win the general election in November. The contentious nature of this primary process belies Romney’s strength among both likely Republican voters and independents. According to this demographic breakdown, on Super Tuesday Romney won by commanding margins among i) voters who care about the economy, ii) voters who care about the working of the federal government, iii) voters who care about the deficit, iv) voters who will definitely vote Republican, and v) voters who want to oust President Obama. Among these groups, Romney received a majority or near-majority of the votes. Since Romney is the first choice of voters who care most about the outcome of the election, this could very well translate into a great turnout on Election Day. Moreover, Romney is the strongest candidate among “moderate to liberal voters.” Of all the Republican candidates, he could best challenge President Obama among moderates and independents, and this fact may prove decisive in November.

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