Envoys of President Donald Trump are set to meet on Friday in Istanbul with representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the president himself seems to have high hopes for the meeting. On Thursday morning, Trump posted without comment a Fox News video entitled “Trump weighs diplomacy with Iran amid rising tensions.” The rulers of the Islamic Republic, however, are hardly behaving like people who are ready to sit down at the negotiating table and hammer out an agreement. In fact, they’re behaving more aggressively than they have in quite some time.
Fox News reported Tuesday that the mullahs in Tehran have “show little public sign” of accepting the terms that Trump’s representatives are likely to present at the Istanbul meeting: “an end to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, curbs on ballistic missiles and a halt to support for proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah,” as well as “an end to the regime’s violent crackdown on protesters.”
Not only is it unlikely that Iran’s Islamic regime will accept any of that, but the Iranians are now nitpicking about the basic arrangements: “Iran is now seeking a change in venue to Friday's meeting — wanting it to be held in Oman, according to a source familiar with the request — raising questions about whether the summit will proceed as scheduled or produce substantive progress.” That is by no means the only reason for questioning whether this meeting will actually accomplish anything.
The biggest indication that the Istanbul (or Oman) meeting will be fruitless is the fact that the Islamic Republic is behaving more aggressively toward the U.S. than it has since the dark days of the Obama administration. The mullahs appear convinced that Trump has revealed weakness in not yet following through on his repeated threats against the Islamic Republic.
On Jan. 2, the president stated that “if Iran shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue.” Then on Jan. 13, Trump assured the Iranian protesters that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” But then he wrote on Jan. 16: “I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!”
The fact that Trump has not yet acted, however, does not mean that he is not going to act, or lacks the will to act. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that Trump "remains committed to always pursuing diplomacy first. But in order for diplomacy to work, of course, it takes two to tango, you need a willing partner to engage. The president has always a range of options on the table, and that includes the use of military force.” The U.S. has moved a pair of aircraft carriers (the USS Gerald Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln) into the area, and a good deal more as well; this is not the behavior of a man who fears to resort to military force.
Related: What on Earth Could the Iranian Regime Be Thinking?
The Iranian mullahs, however, seem to have concluded that Trump is the second coming of Jimmy Carter. Fox noted that “this week, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said American forces shot down an Iranian drone after it aggressively approached the USS Abraham Lincoln while the aircraft carrier was operating in international waters in the Arabian Sea. CENTCOM said the drone ignored de-escalatory measures before an F-35C fighter jet downed it in self-defense.” That wasn’t all: “Hours later, Iranian naval forces harassed a U.S.-flagged, U.S.-crewed commercial tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to CENTCOM. Iranian gunboats and a surveillance drone repeatedly threatened to board the vessel before the guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul intervened and escorted the tanker to safety.”
The mullahs see the world in terms of strength and weakness, and they have clearly concluded that Trump is weak. They have misread their man, however, as they are likely to discover in the most unpleasant of fashions in the coming days and weeks. Unless, of course, they decide to come to Istanbul and accept Trump’s terms. Stranger things have happened, but of the many possible outcomes in this most volatile of situations, that one appears to be the least likely.
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