Each new report coming out of the Islamic Republic of Iran is more horrific than the last. It is clear that the regime has been waging a brutal and bloody war against its own people, and continues to do so without regard for any possible consequences of doing so, whether they come from President Donald Trump or anyone else.
As the death count climbs inexorably higher, however, and the world watches in horror, the question becomes ever more urgent: what on earth are they thinking in Tehran? Do the supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his minions really think that they can maintain power indefinitely at the point of a bayonet and at the price of the blood of their own people?
There are precedents, to be sure, but sooner or later, every bloodthirsty tyranny comes to an end. Can the mullahs not see this? Or do they think they can stave it off and postpone it indefinitely, as the Chinese Communists seem to have done in 1989 with the Tienanmen Square massacre? That certainly seems to be the case; the Islamic regime is pursuing its violent course with relentless gusto.
As Fox News reported Monday, Iranian journalist Fatemeh Jamalpour noted that the regime has been even more brutal in recent weeks than it ever was against past protests: "The regime’s level of violence has increased dramatically, and with the internet crackdown, it is difficult to know the true scale of the killing. The new thing I have seen in these protests, something we have not seen before, is that starting on the night of January 8, the regime issued shoot-to-kill orders to the IRGC, the Basij and the riot police, authorizing direct fire."
Jamalpour explained that "in previous protests, military-grade weapons were used mainly in minority provinces such as Kurdistan and Baluchestan. This time they were used across the entire country… Health Ministry officials told us they ran out-of-body bags for the dead."
The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which tracks such things, estimates that the Iranian government has killed 5,848 of its own people. The Iranian government itself says that 3,117 “terrorists” have been killed. However, the Munich Med Group, which carefully studies actual hospital records, estimates that the Iranian Islamic regime has murdered at least 33,130 people as of Friday. The dissident news site Iran International puts the figure at over 36,500 people on just two days alone, Jan. 8 and 9.
These numbers are staggering, and lead again to the central question: how can a regime, any regime, do this and expect to survive? The graveyard of history is full of tyrannies that thought they could remain in powerful indefinitely if they kept their people frightened enough. Eventually people grow so tired of being brutalized that fear can no longer restrain them.
In the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran, however, the mullahs have another factor to consider: the will of Allah. In the Qur’an, the Islamic deity gives one single word of advice to those who are contending, as the rulers of the Islamic Republic insists that they are, not just against the enemies of the regime, but the enemies of Allah himself: terror. “Strike terror in the enemies of Allah” (8:60) says the Islamic book, and the Islamic regime took it as the creator of the universe’s advice for how to deal with malcontents. They must be terrorized into submission, and that’s that.
There is no Plan B. The Qur’an never says “And if the protests continue, then become conciliatory and open negotiations with the enemies of Allah.” It never says “If you are getting heavy international pressure, then back off on the terror a bit.” Terror is the only tool the Qur’an supplies for dealing with situations such as the one in which the Islamic Republic finds itself, and so when the mullahs use this tool, they believe not only that the public will eventually submit, but that Allah will bless their efforts and grant safety and prosperity to their regime.
Related: Iran’s Khamenei Is Talking About Trump Like a Man Who Just Won a War
That means that as the Islamic regime in Tehran gets ever more brutal, it is not just trying to stave off the inevitable. It is trying to draw down from paradise the blessings of Allah. “Fight them,” the Qur’an says, “and Allah will punish them by your hands, and he will lay them low and give you victory over them, and he will heal the hearts of people who are believers. And he will remove the anger of their hearts. Allah relents toward those whom he wills.” (9:14-15)
So how can the mullahs turn away the ire of Trump and Netanyahu and maintain themselves in power indefinitely? They think they can accomplish that by doing exactly what has gained them Trump’s negative attention in the first place. And so while he has warned them not to kill the protesters, albeit without so far making good on his threat to intervene if they did so, they think the only thing they can possibly do to retain their legitimacy as an Islamic regime is to terrorize and kill the protesters. This will not, and cannot, end well.
