In 1975, a brash new TV show premiered. Viewers had never seen anything like Saturday Night Live (SNL). It aired in the 11:30 p.m. time slot on NBC and featured a group of (then) unknown actors doing skits and gags geared toward a younger audience.
At the same time, network news coverage had been reporting for weeks about the imminent death of "The Last Fascist," Generalissimo Francisco Franco. The death watch was interminable. For weeks, network news reported on every minor change in Franco's condition. If there was no news, some broadcasts concluded with "Franco is still alive."
Franco finally died on Nov. 20, 1975. The next Saturday night during SNL, anchor Chevy Chase started saying "Franco is still dead" on the "Weekend Update" segment to mock the endless news coverage. It became one of the decade's most popular catchphrases.
I think it's time to resurrect the gag and apply it to news about fanatical Islamist Mojtaba Khamenei and the endless speculation about whether he's alive or dead.
Uncounted times since the Feb. 28 bombing that took out his father Ali's fortified bunker, killing dozens of top-ranking Iranian government officials, it's been reported that Khamenei the Younger succumbed to his injuries. The regime has admitted that Mojtaba was badly injured, but said he was well enough to speak with the new leaders of the Iranian government. His election as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts has been questioned; he has yet to appear in public, and even top leaders in the government have not laid eyes on him since the death of his father.
An article in The Atlantic by Arash Azizi has started tongues wagging again. Azizi claims that Khamenei the Younger not only merely dead. He's really, most sincerely dead.
Funny thing: Only five individuals have seen the new Supreme Leader. And yet, there's been a blizzard of pronouncements, edicts, and bombastic statements from him, suggesting an energetic and dynamic leader.
Almost six months since his anointment, Iran’s supreme leader has been entirely obscured from the public eye. Not a single contemporaneous picture, video, or audio recording of him has been released. Many of the country’s top political leaders admit that they haven’t seen him—among them Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister and a member of the National Security Council. IranWire, a London-based opposition outlet, reports that not a single cabinet member has met with Mojtaba since he became supreme leader.
Not even Mojtaba’s close friends and relatives have seen him. Fewer than five people have met with Mojtaba since his ascent to power, Mohammad Hossein Khoshvaght, a former official and a relative of Mojataba’s told me, “due to security precautions.”
The rationale is not implausible. Mojtaba would be a likely target for an Israeli or U.S. air strike, such as the one that killed his father. Direct communication from him could supply Iran’s enemies with clues to his whereabouts. He is also said to have sustained injuries in the February strike on his family that have made public speeches and appearances difficult.
“I believe Mojtaba has either passed away or is brain-dead,” a staffer at a government institution in Tehran told Azizi. One solid reason why this might not be scuttlebutt is that the amount of communications coming from the Supreme Leader's office has all but ceased in recent days.
"At least two other government officials told me the same," Aziz wrote. "One said that he believed Mojtaba died or became brain-dead earlier this month."
The Islamic tradition of holding a "wake" 40 days after the death of a loved one was telling. A veritable who's who of Iranian power brokers showed up at the event commemorating the death of Ali Khamenei, including several of the elder Khamenei’s sons. Missing was the host himself: Mojtaba Khamenei.
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Whether Mojtaba is dead or alive is more than idle speculation.
Whether Mojtaba is dead or alive, his public absence creates problems for the Iranian regime. The supreme leader holds most of the constitutional power in the Islamic Republic and has in the past served as the final arbiter among the system’s warring factions and institutions. Mojtaba appears to be sitting these conflicts out, at a moment when their outcome could be particularly consequential.
The country’s 13-person National Security Council is effectively running the country as a collective. It is chaired by Pezeshkian, a reformist who favors an end to the war with America, and includes Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the powerful parliamentary speaker who led the talks with the United States. But it also includes General Ahmad Vahidi, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and other military leaders.
General Vahidi is the real power in Iran, while President Pezeshkian concerns himself with domestic matters. Vahidi has the guns, and in Iran's precarious state, that counts the most.
It really doesn't matter if Khamenei is alive or dead. The Iranian regime has been reborn as a military dictatorship, with the clerics cowering in their mosques. Vahidi is using Mojtaba Khamenei as a frontman, so whether the ayatollah is alive or not is immaterial until the general consolidates power.
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