For more than 11 years, Ukraine has been fighting an existential war for national survival. At least, that's how most citizens see the struggle against Russia.
A poll published this summer by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that only 38% of Ukrainians would accept trading their territory for peace, with 52% "firmly against" such concessions. Sixty-eight percent oppose official recognition of Russian control of occupied territories, and 78% reject the surrender of regions not currently under Russian control.
This attitude of resistance is giving Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky the support he needs to defy Russian President Vladimir Putin's bid for conquest. While noncombatants may be standing firm, the men who have to defend Ukraine are less certain. Dodging the draft has reached epidemic proportions, as have desertions.
Russia has not been a gentle occupier. In the early days of the war, Russia was pushed back from the gates of Kyiv. The retreat of Russian forces could be easily seen by following the trail of mass graves of civilian dead. The United Nations has largely confirmed the stories of Russian brutality and bloodlust.
In 2022, Viktoriia Honcharuk was working a good job at Morgan Stanley when Russia invaded the land of her ancestors. She felt compelled to quit her job and go to Ukraine, where she became a combat medic.
“For me, it’s not a question of growing old,” Ms. Honcharuk, 25, told the Wall Street Journal. “I accept that every single time I go for evacuations, I might be killed—but that’s OK with me.”
“When you see what Russia brings—the mass graves, the forced deportations, the torture of civilians—you stop romanticizing compromise,” Ms. Honcharuk texted on her way to the front. “This isn’t about politics. It’s about dignity. About never having to look a child in the eyes and explain that you gave up their future just to stay alive a little longer.”
President Zelensky has promised to win back "every inch" of territory currently under Russian control. He will maintain that pledge as long as the people can stomach the bloodletting. But how long can Ukraine endure?
Zelensky will almost certainly get no significant help from his Western European neighbors. NATO does not have the spare ordinance that Kyiv needs to continue to fight effectively. Nor will the fat, happy Western Europeans fight to save Ukraine. They will wish Zelensky all the luck in the world and call Putin mean names, but forget any material support that could make a difference in the war.
Zelensky had little choice but to keep fighting with whatever he could make domestically (drone manufacturing was one of Ukraine's only bright spots) or beg, borrow, and steal everything he could from the U.S. and his allies in NATO. It's not going to be enough to turn the tide. But what can he do? Putin keeps saying that Ukraine is part of Russia.
“Russian occupation is not just changing one state flag to another,” says Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of the Center for Civil Liberties, a Ukrainian nongovernmental organization. Ms. Matviichuk says she fears “we will reach the moment when even the severe skeptics will have no doubt that this is a genocide. But it will be too late for us.”
Putin makes peace impossible for Ukrainians by continuing to say that Ukraine is "historically" part of Russia. It's nonsense, as any student of Russian history could tell you. But as long as Putin insists that he wants to absorb all of Ukraine, any ceding land for peace is an invitation to continue the war at a later date after Moscow recovers.
Putin has read the room perfectly. He feels no compulsion to halt his offensive despite the huge casualties his advances are costing the Russian army because he knows no one will stop him. It's the Hitler scenario all over again, with Putin crossing one red line after another and no one lifting a finger to stop him.
Ukrainians are continuing to fight because they feel they have no choice. They fail to see the efficacy of giving up land when "peace" will be a mirage. That's a fairly accurate assessment of Ukraine's predicament.
