As Stephen Green wrote yesterday, there are strong signs that Israel, perhaps with the U.S., is preparing to attack Iran to eliminate the threat its nuclear program poses to the world.
Donald Trump may have given up on trying to get Iran to dismantle its nuclear enrichment program voluntarily through negotiations. It was always a long shot. As Iran moved closer to a nuclear "breakout," the ploy by Iran to stall for time became obvious.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) "has formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years," according to the BBC. Nineteen of 35 nations voted for the resolution declaring Iran non-compliant.
Iran's response was to announce the construction of a new enrichment plant.
Iran is an object lesson in the utter failure of international institutions to restrain an aggressive nation's ability to build weapons of mass destruction. Now, Iran (if it hasn't already built a nuclear bomb) is within easy reach of creating the ultimate safeguard against insults to the Prophet.
The president has now ordered evacuations across the Middle East, a move that puts Iran on notice that time has almost run out. There is one more round of negotiations scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday. It's not likely that the U.S. and Israel will strike Iran before then.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham will offer a joint resolution on Thursday "affirming that the only acceptable outcome of U.S. nuclear talks with Iran would be the total dismantlement of its enrichment program," according to Jewish Insider. Trump has already said as much, but this resolution puts Congress on record as supporting the president.
Israel is not capable of destroying Iran's nuclear program alone. There are too many sites spread widely across the country and several sites buried deep underground that Israeli bombs are unable to reach. A joint mission with the U.S., however, could do the job.
Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, said on Tuesday that he had provided “a wide range of options” to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump to strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Those options almost certainly included various scenarios to degrade Iran's ability to enrich uranium and construct missiles to deliver warheads.
Kurilla affirmed, under questioning from the House Armed Services Committee, that the military is prepared for a strong show of force against Iran if it refuses to give up its nuclear program. He said that Iran is continuing to increase its stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60% purity, for which he said there are no legitimate civilian uses.
Kurilla added that Iran is in a “weaker strategic position” than it was pre-Oct. 7, but still maintains “a lot of operational capabilities, in terms of their long-range weapons.”
He also emphasized that China, in purchasing the majority of Iran’s exported oil, is “effectively supporting and financing Iran’s malign behavior.” He said that the administration’s moves to sanction “teapot refineries” in China were a major step.
Israel was "days away" from striking Iran the week before Memorial Day when Donald Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off to give negotiations a shot. In a telephone call on Monday with Netanyahu, Trump once again asked Netanyahu to stand down and remove the issue from public discussion. He also requested that Netanyahu end the Gaza War.
Two days later, Trump ordered the evacuations.
In a Fox News interview earlier this week, Trump said that Iran was becoming "much more aggressive" in negotiations.
"Iran is acting much differently in negotiations than it did just days ago," Trump told Fox News' Bret Baier. "Much more aggressive. It’s surprising to me. It’s disappointing, but we are set to meet again tomorrow – we’ll see."
If Israel attacks Iran, it will be a limited strike unless the U.S. joins in. Frankly, I don't see the point of a limited strike. The international condemnation, the inability to affect Iran's drive for a nuclear weapon, the risk of a wider war, and the idea of making Iran the "victim" in the eyes of many in the international community wouldn't be worth it.
That's why I think Trump will (reluctantly) join Israel in the attack. There's no sense in attacking Iran without the goal of totally eliminating its ability to build a weapon, and only a joint Israel-U.S. mission can make that goal a reality.
Anything short of that would create more problems than it solves.
