Joe Biden was probably flying high after reading all the glowing reviews he received in the media after his State of the Union speech. That speech may have impressed the media, but the American voter was less enthusiastic. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden's numbers are actually slightly worse as of March 11 than they were before the speech.
This is only one indication that Biden is still in deep trouble in his bid for re-election. And the longer he struggles, the more worried the Democratic Party elites will get.
Peter Savodnik is the senior editor at The Free Press and recently went diving deep into Democratic Party politics. What he found wasn't surprising but it was shocking to hear it coming from Democratic Party insiders.
Savodnik contacted 10 Democrats who have advised presidential candidates, raised money, and written speeches — and none of them wanted to speak on the record. This wasn't unexpected; what they are advising is professional suicide. If it got out what they were talking about, it would mean the end of their careers.
Savodnik reported that "they pretty much agreed on two things:"
- Biden is doomed. (In the wake of Super Tuesday, the 77-year-old Donald Trump led the 81-year-old Biden in an average of RealClearPolitics polls and was up more than four points in battleground states.)
- There is one way we can avoid catastrophe—for the Democratic Party and the country: an open Democratic National Convention this summer, giving rise to a younger, more viable, more vital nominee. “Fingers crossed. Hoping for a Deus Ex Machina!” a Democratic adviser and fundraiser in Los Angeles texted me. One Democratic bundler said: “I frankly hope that both Trump and Biden have some sort of medical incident that won’t kill them but will make them reevaluate the race.”
The idea of an open convention is not some right-wing fever dream. It's being seriously considered by knowledgeable and influential Democrats.
Of course, the catch is convincing Biden to step away. Without some obvious medical problem, it becomes problematic. I've speculated before that it might resemble the GOP delegation that approached Nixon in August of 1974 to get him to resign. Barry Goldwater, U.S. House Minority Leader John Rhodes (R-Ariz.), and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott (R-Pa.) managed to get through to Nixon that an impeachment fight was hopeless and he should resign for the good of the party and the country.
Related: Majority of Democrats Would Oppose Congress Certifying a Trump Victory
Biden probably wouldn't resign. And stepping away from the campaign will all but neuter him as president. So perhaps all this talk of an "open convention" is hot air, after all.
That's how the situation looks now. But what will the political landscape look like in May or June? Biden could drop out of the race in July and give Democratic candidates a month to organize a convention floor fight.
Off the record, tons (all?) of them would love to see it happen. A large chunk is convinced Biden will not be the nominee—his pretty good performance Thursday at the State of the Union notwithstanding. “He’s just too old, and it’s like no one’s even talking about ‘How is he going to make it to 2029?’ ” one Democratic campaign adviser told me.
The most obvious choice would be a Democratic governor not named Newsom. Savodnik games out a possible scenario.
Over the course of the next three days, the convention, far from being the corporatized coronation we’ve come to expect, is more like an audition, with the Big Five governors—Illinois’s J.B. Pritzker, Colorado’s Jared Polis, California’s Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer—dominating the headlines. One Democratic speechwriter who knows Whitmer well told me: “Gretchen Whitmer’s team is absolutely getting ready in case Biden steps down before the convention.”
“Gretchen’s the whole package—woman, Upper Midwest, attractive-ish,” another Democratic speechwriter told me.
Whitmer would need an inordinate amount of help to get over the top at the convention. The same could be said for any of the other younger candidates, any of whom would probably be a formidable opponent for Trump.
But this is the Democratic National Convention, full of the most committed, the most radical members of the party. If Bernie Sanders doesn't win on the first or second ballot, perhaps one of the other candidates might break through.
Democrats may have the best of intentions of nominating a "moderate" candidate. But it's doubtful the radical majority will allow it. Most Democrats know this, which is why, in the end, they may just hold their breaths and accept Biden as their nominee.
