The fast-moving crisis in southern Russia involving mercenaries from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group taking control of two Russian cities may have been resolved. Negotiations between Prigozhin and Belarus President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko have resulted in Wagner Group forces turning back from their march on Moscow.
“Now the moment has come when blood could be shed,” Mr. Prigozhin said. “So, understanding all responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled, on one side, we are turning around our column and are leaving in the opposite direction to field camps in accordance with the plan.”
Prigozhin said nothing about leaving Rostov-on-Don — the city he and his forces are currently occupying after leaving Ukraine. And Vladimir Putin hasn’t taken back his calling Prigozhin a “traitor.”
But this deal was negotiated by Putin’s lap dog Lukashenko, meaning it has the Russian president’s full support.
“This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed his Belarusian counterpart on the situation in southern Russia with the private military company Wagner,” the statement said. “The heads of state agreed on joint actions.
“As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having been additionally informed on the situation through his own channels, and in agreement with the President of Russia, held talks with the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin,” the statement continued. “Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions.”
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence claims there were signs that Prigozhin had been planning a challenge to Putin for some time.
US and western intelligence officials saw signs Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.
The official said they believe Prigozhin’s claims of an ammunition shortage for operations in Ukraine was deliberate deception, to help lay the groundwork for a potential military challenge to Russian leaders.
One of the sources said that while US intelligence believed it was only a matter of time before Prigozhin made a dramatic move against Russian military leadership, there was “uncertainty” about when it could happen. The other source said “it all happened very quickly,” and it was difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops.
Prigozhin and Putin were very close at one time. But the Wagner Group leader appears to have developed an appetite for power, and the two had a falling out. It’s an open question whether Prigozhin himself is in danger or whether Putin’s need for Wagner’s soldiers can overcome whatever unease Putin may have about his old friend’s motives.
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